Drop in teacher job adverts as falling rolls and cuts bite

More than one-third of primary schools and four in 10 secondaries are expecting to reduce their numbers of staff next year, amid falling pupil numbers and tightening budgets.

The annual teacher recruitment and retention report by Teacher Tapp and SchoolDash, funded by Gatsby Foundation, was published on Thursday.

It combines national data such as job advert monitoring with daily survey responses from over 10,000 teachers, to give a “comprehensive picture” of the teacher labour market in England.

The report shows cumulative job adverts for secondary school teaching roles are 31% lower this year than last year, and 22% lower than before the pandemic.

The report suggests teachers are less inclined to change roles, following a surge in turnover that followed the pandemic.

But at the same time many schools – particularly in areas like London – are anticipating a future decline in pupil numbers and are responding with “more cautious staffing plans”, it said. The report suggests this is further exacerbated by “serious budgetary pressures” schools are facing.

It found 44% of secondary headteachers expect to reduce their teacher headcount in September, “suggesting a contraction in the workforce may begin even before student enrolment numbers fall”.

Meanwhile primary schools, particularly in London and the North East, are responding to the population decline and financial pressures by “reducing staff numbers, merging classes, or increasing senior leaders’ teaching responsibilities”.

Just 5% of primary headteachers said they expect to increase their teacher numbers next academic year, while 36% expected a reduction.

Primary pupil numbers nationally has been falling since 2018-19, as a population bulge caused by the 2000s baby boom has reached secondary age. Latest figures show unfilled primary school places have leapt by 6 per cent in a year, to 611,330 in 2023-24 from 577,647 the previous year.

Secondary school pupil numbers are forecast to keep increasing until 2027-28, after which they are expected to start falling as that cohort leaves school.

Analysis by SchoolDash, which gathers teacher job listings throughout the year, shows there has been a significant fall in job advertisements across all secondary subjects compared to last year. There was a 33% drop in vacancies listed across all subjects, including significant drops in English (33%), maths (28%), and science (29%).

SchoolDash founder Timo Hannay said: “Our job advert data show a clear slowdown in teacher recruitment, particularly since January.

“The picture is similar across most subjects, but especially pronounced in English, maths and science. With budget pressures biting and pupil numbers shifting, schools are clearly having to make more cautious staffing decisions.”

Teachers less committed to job long-term

Teacher Tapp says the percentage of teachers reporting their school is inadequately staffed has risen from 16% last year to 17% this year.

Meanwhile the staffing situation has shown a modest improvement at secondary schools. 

The percentage of secondary teachers reporting their department lacks an adequate number of suitably qualified teachers has risen slightly, from 23% last year to 21% this year.

Elsewhere, the study found teachers remain significantly less committed to the profession long-term than before the pandemic. The proportion of teachers who expect to be teaching in three years has fallen from around 75% before the pandemic to around 60% today. This figure appears to have stabilised, based on previous years’ findings

Teachers’ underlying concerns “include limited flexibility, alternative career options, pay, accountability, and pupil behaviour,” said the report.

This year’s annual report was published slightly earlier than in previous years, and so it only contains job market activity up to the Easter holiday.

Teachers wanting to start a new job in September must give notice by the end of May, so the report warns that much of this year’s recruitment activity has not been reflected in the report. Another report will be published in early summer to give a “more complete picture” of the labour market for 2024-25.