Unfilled primary school places up 6% in a year as falling rolls bite

The number of unfilled primary school places has leapt by 6 per cent in a year, as falling rolls continue to present a challenge to the system.

Government data published today shows there were 611,330 unfilled primary school places in 2023-24, 12.3 per cent of all places. This is an increase from 577,647, or 11.7 per cent, the year before.

There were also 452,186 unfilled places in secondary schools last year, though this is down from 465,262 the year before.

The data shows 84 per cent of primary schools and 76 per cent of secondary schools had one or more unfilled place.

Secondary numbers to peak in 2027-28

Primary pupil numbers nationally have been falling since 2018-19 as a population bulge caused by the 2000s baby boom has moved into secondary.

Secondary school pupil numbers are forecast to keep increasing until 2027-28, after which point they will begin to fall as that cohort leaves school.

The proportion of unfilled places varies hugely across the country, with inner London boroughs particularly affected because of the compounding impact of emigration caused by property prices and Brexit.

For example, over 30 per cent of primary places in Lambeth and Westminster are unfilled.

In comparison, Coventry has just 1.5 per cent of primary places unfilled. In Wolverhampton it’s 3.1 per cent.

Funding problems

Falling pupil numbers are causing dire funding problems for primary schools, and has already prompted closures and amalgamations, particularly in London.

Schools with falling numbers can claim emergency funding, but only if they can prove they expect numbers to rise again.

Today’s data also shows the proportion of primary schools at or over capacity fell from 17 per cent in 2022-23 to 16 per cent last year. At the same time, the proportion of secondary schools in that position rose from 23 to 24 per cent.

However, again there are large variations between areas.

For example, in Coventry, 63.6 per cent of secondary schools and 57.6 per cent of primary schools are at or over capacity, compared to none in the London boroughs of Islington and Camden.