Shiremoor Primary was once a two-form-entry school. But in the past couple of years, pupil numbers at the North Tyneside school have dropped off a cliff.
“All of a sudden, the year before last, the admissions numbers were just really far down and we ended up with about 34 children, which obviously isn’t enough,” says headteacher Barbara Middleton.
“I’ve lost essentially two classes.”
With school funding based on pupil numbers, she has already had to let go three teachers.
“Shiremoor is an old mining community, and it means that we need a lot of resource to support children in reaching the standards that we want them to reach,” she says.
“I’ve always overstaffed so that we could do really great interventions … so that we could reduce class sizes. This year we just haven’t been able to overstaff in the way that we would normally.”
Shiremoor is rated ‘good’ by Ofsted. Children get a Chromebook each to take home for school work and benefit from specialist Spanish and music teachers and intensive support in phonics.
But these interventions could be under threat.
“My worry is that a lot of the things that I have been able to afford for my children, I may no longer be able to,” says Middleton.
Falling rolls issue grows across England
Shiremoor is far from alone. Declining childbirth rates since 2012 are now hitting school demographics, taking many well above the advised 5 per cent rate of surplus places to maintain flexibility.
Most attention has focused on London, where birthrates started falling a year before the rest of the country and where housing prices and Brexit are driving emigration from the city. But falling school rolls are biting outside the capital too.
Analysis of council documents shows Stockport has 17 per cent surplus places in reception year alone, and 32 per cent surplus capacity in Edgeley, a suburb in the city.
Southampton is forecasting 3,000 surplus places in 2029-30, equivalent to 100 classes. Central Bedfordshire is forecasting around 10,000 surplus places in 2030-31.
A quarter of Stoke’s 71 primary schools are predicted to hit at least 20 per cent surplus capacity in the coming years, and at least one school in south Norfolk was allocated no children for its 2024 intake.
School closures planned
Councils view school closures as a last resort, with a government presumption against the closure of rural schools – but they are happening. Even where they’re not, local authorities warn they may become inevitable.
The Standard reported last summer that 30 London schools were set to shut at the start of the 2025-26 academic year.
But closures aren’t limited to the capital. Last year Hackforth and Hornby Primary School in North Yorkshire shut after it shrank to just eight pupils.
Snape Wood Primary in Nottingham will shut this autumn after its unfilled capacity rose to 42 per cent, while Hertfordshire County Council is consulting on closing two primaries.
So far declining birthrates have mainly hit primaries, but secondary schools will be affected as the demographic black hole progresses up the age range.
In Camden, north London, which has experienced a 36 per cent fall in childbirth rates since 2012, the council has already cut secondary school intake by 4.5 entry-year classes.
Parental choice can exacerbate the situation. Declining numbers mean the most popular local schools are less likely to be oversubscribed.
As more parents to flock to these popular schools, less popular schools are left with rapidly shrinking pupil numbers.
‘Total destabilisation’
A recent Norfolk County Council report said that in its rural Cromer and Sheringham planning area, which has 32 per cent surplus capacity in its primary schools, “uncontrolled parental preference” for more popular schools has led to “the total destabilisation of other schools in the area”.
The first response is to reduce published admission numbers (PAN), cutting the number of pupils schools can admit. This allows more realistic planning, and potentially lower staff headcounts. But it can also mean mixed-year classes.
“To support effective models of curriculum planning and delivery, we will seek wherever possible solutions that enable single-age classes,” a Norfolk council report said in October.
“Where this is not possible, cohorts of 15 support two-year mixed-age group classes, or 10, which supports three-year mixed-age group classes limits the impact of mixed-aged teaching.”
But while PANs can be cut, the size and cost of senior staffing and school buildings are more static.
The next stage is for schools to either join a multi-academy trust or federation, or merge with another school, enabling staffing efficiencies, including at management level.
Repurposing buildings not a panacea
Schools that shrink or merge are also left with potentially redundant buildings to maintain. But councils are keen to hold on to them as birthrates may rise again.
There are opportunities here as well, with the government encouraging primary schools to open nurseries in unused classrooms.
Other alternatives for redundant school buildings include SEND provision, sharing facilities with community groups, and post-16 programmes.
Government “falling rolls funding” can usually only be spent on schools that can show their shrinking pupil numbers are temporary, and will be reversed within a few years.
But this funding can be used to repurpose space to create SEND provision or early years places, even where no bounceback is forecast.
Repurposing school buildings is not a panacea, however.
“Whilst the government’s agenda around early years and childcare and sufficiency will utilise some surplus capacity in primary schools,” West Sussex County Council warned in a recent report, “this will not be sufficient to actively plan for the significant reduction in need for primary school places projected”.
Closure is a last resort
Last month Newham Council in east London approved shutting Calverton Primary School at the end of this academic year after filling less than half its capacity.
All children will be offered places at local schools, while those with education, health and care plans (EHCPs) will have early annual reviews to determine their next placement.
The school’s specialist SEND provision – something the government wants to encourage – has made its closure particularly controversial.
Ofsted rated the school ‘outstanding’ in all areas last summer and lavished praise on its SEND provision.
Darren Williams, the executive head of the CPD Schools Federation that includes Calverton, said the closure was “inevitable”.
“We marketed the school as best as we could, and particularly amongst our parents with younger children, to get them in as early as possible. But other than that, we were in a very challenging position where the roll has been falling for a number of years.”
He says the council has given assurances that pupils with EHCPs will be found alternative provision. But he worries about those with high needs but no EHCP.
“A much smaller number of schools have resourced provision, and a large number of mainstream children that access our resourced provision require that more specialist support.”
Local authorities are setting out criteria on how they will judge PAN reductions and what might lead them to close schools.
However, the Office of the Schools Adjudicator has shown its willingness to block inadequately laid plans. Last year it stopped closures in Lambeth, south London, and the Isle of Wight.
“The Department for Education should ensure that all schools, including academies, work together as a local ecosystem to manage the implications of any school closures,” says Amanda Hopgood, chair of the Local Government Association’s children, young people and families committee.
School finances taking the hit
There is much evidence of the impact falling rolls have on school finances. More schools in Southampton have running deficits, with a council report noting this is “largely due to a decrease in pupil numbers leading to a reduction in funding”.
There was a 20 per cent fall in reception year pupils in Islington, north London, and a 10 per cent fall in year 7 pupils between 2021-22 and 2024-25, with schools’ collective net balances falling from £9.5 million in 2020-21 to £5.3 million in 2024-25.
So far three schools have closed and two have merged into other schools.
“A reduction of just ten pupils can have a significant financial impact on a school’s income, but very little impact on its ability to reduce costs,” a council report said.
According to the Confederation of School Trusts (CST), 53 per cent of trust chief executives identified falling rolls as one of the three most immediate risks to their financial stability in 2025, up from 28 per cent in 2023.
Almost 80 per cent of CEOs of trusts with more than 20 schools flagged falling rolls as an immediate financial risk, compared with 26 per cent of CEOs of single-school trusts.
Leora Cruddas, the confederation’s chief executive, says trusts are “looking carefully at costs and where unused classrooms can be repurposed for things like nursery provision. But this is not always straightforward.*
The financial risk of closure
School closures also present a financial risk to councils.
Calverton’s closure is expected to cost Newham up to £3.5 million, with the council having to absorb its estimated £2 million deficit by the time it shuts – worsened by falling pupil numbers – plus £1 million in redundancy and pension costs and £500,000 for leasing agreements.
Newham’s report described such costs as “a growing risk given a number of other, mainly small schools are on a similar path of falling pupil numbers without reducing expenditure budgets at a matching pace”.
Housebuilding can help push back the tide. But this can mean some councils having to deal with both pupil growth pressures and falling school rolls at the same time.
Wokingham has a surplus of primary places and will require “further reductions” in admission numbers. But rising roll numbers in some parts of the borough mean there is “insufficient local provision”, a report said.
The cuts in funding driven by falling rolls only compound the impact of years of real-terms reductions.
“You’re talking double figure years since we’ve had a rise in the amount of money per child in real terms,” adds Middleton.
It makes for a bleak financial future, she says, as the cut in funding combines with special needs pressures that are costing the system an “absolute fortune”.
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