Several popular subjects have seen just a quarter of recent GCSE grade inflation clawed back this year.
Schools Week analysis shows only 26.9 per cent of the post-2019 inflation at the grade 5 pass rate – which government calls a “strong pass” – has been tackled in this year’s results.
In English literature and art and design, results are less than 20 per cent of the way back to pre-pandemic levels.
The more generous grades than expected may provide relief for students and staff, but it risks storing up a more drastic, controversial cut in grades in many subjects next year.
Exams regulator Ofqual had promised to bear down on inflation sparked by teacher-assessed grades.
Ofqual said this year’s results would reflect a “midway point” between 2019 grades and last year, before next year’s results are hauled back down to pre-Covid levels.
But among 16-year-olds in England, none of the 10 most popular subjects have seen strong pass rates return anywhere close to halfway – though some have fallen much faster than others.
In English literature, 62.4 per cent of all entries were at 5 or above. That only marked a 0.9 percentage point (pp) decline on the previous year. A fall of 3.1 pps was required to meet the “midway point” back to pre-Covid levels.
That means just 14.5 per cent of the inflation seen since 2019 in English literature has been curbed – the lowest among the 10 most popular subjects.
Among the most popular subjects, geography came closest to clawing back grade inflation to the “midway” point, with 38.7 per cent of post-2019 inflation wiped out.
There was a greater reversal in inflation among top grades than “strong pass” rates, however. This year’s results at grades 7 and above saw 36.6 per cent of the inflation since 2019 wiped out. At grade 4 and above, the reversal was even greater at 41.3 per cent, but still short of halfway.
The discrepancies could reflect greater clustering of pupils around some grade boundaries than others.
Analysis by FFT Education Datalab of both standard “pass” rates – those graded at 4 or above – and top grades at 7 and above showed a similar picture of lower-than-expected downgrades.
The think tank found that for more than 20 subjects, results were “above the midpoint of 2019 and 2021”.
Top grades at A-level last week saw similar trends too for top grades. There were notable divides between subjects, but overall the proportion of A* grades was significantly below halfway back to 2019 levels.
It prompted ex-government adviser Tom Richmond to warn results were “not out of the woods yet”, writing for Schools Week: “Do not underestimate the politics of grade inflation – both as grades go up, and as grades go down.”
Analysis of the top 10 most popular subjects also shows which had the smallest and largest drops in the grade five pass rate.
English literature saw the smallest drop, down 0.9 percentage points, with religious studies second. At the other end of the scale, geography saw the biggest percentage point drop, down 4.1 per cent.
Are languages not important enough to be included?