Opinion

Winter of discontent is a real danger for pupils’ confidence

Data revealed pupils’ sense of agency takes a knock from January, and we’re taking steps to address this, says Lee Wilson

Data revealed pupils’ sense of agency takes a knock from January, and we’re taking steps to address this, says Lee Wilson

2 Feb 2026, 7:00

When pupils walk through our school gates each September, more often than not they believe that if they work hard, they can succeed.

But new national research from IncludEd’s The Engagement Platform (TEP) shows this crucial mindset, which is referred to as pupils’ sense of control, significantly weakens as children progress through secondary school.

Changes in a pupil’s sense of control matter for many reasons, but in particular we have been working with TEP and ImpactEd Group to understand how this interacts with pupils’ reading development in our schools.

Professor John Jerrim analysed our anonymised TEP pupil engagement data alongside key stage 3 reading age tests over an academic year. The results were eye-opening.

Belief in learning is not fixed – and it matters

The research, drawing on data from all 28 schools across our trust, reveals something we’ve long recognised intuitively: pupil engagement doesn’t remain constant throughout the academic year.

Our pupils’ sense that they can control their academic outcomes through effort and strategy drops markedly between autumn and spring terms, with year 7 pupils experiencing the sharpest fall as they adjust to the transition from primary.

What the data shows about reading progress

Remarkably, by then cross-referencing our TEP engagement data with outcomes from reading age assessments, we found that pupils who were able to maintain a strong sense of academic control made approximately two months more progress in their reading skills over a four-month period compared to peers who lacked this belief.

This was true even after controlling for prior achievement, demographics, the school attended and year group.

These findings have prompted us to rethink how we support pupils’ reading development across our trust.

First, we now recognise that maintaining pupils’ sense of academic control must sit alongside traditional reading interventions.

When pupils believe their efforts influence outcomes, they’re more likely to persist through challenging texts, employ comprehension strategies and dedicate time to independent reading.

Second, the decline in engagement and pupil sense of control for our year 7 pupils, and indeed for year 7 pupils nationally, has reinforced our commitment to working on deeper transition plans for every child.

In line with the recommendations of the curriculum and assessment review, we want to see a key stage 3 that is engaging and that takes children’s learning forward.

Third, the timing of our interventions matters.

The spring term emerges as a critical period when many pupils’ belief in their ability to influence their learning starts to diminish.

This suggests that between January and March might be an optimal window for targeted support focused on rebuilding pupils’ confidence in their capacity to improve through effort.

The research found little evidence that maintaining a strong sense of control is more or less important for socio-economically disadvantaged pupils or those with different levels of prior achievement.

This suggests that our efforts to strengthen pupils’ sense of academic control will benefit all pupils, regardless of background.

A lesson for leaders across the system

This work has given us pause for thought and has shown us how bringing data together around a child can act as a powerful lead indicator. It shows us as leaders where to best focus our time, energy and resources.

Latest education roles from

Deputy Principal Finance & Facilities – HSDC

Deputy Principal Finance & Facilities – HSDC

FEA

Executive Principal

Executive Principal

Lift Rawlett

Head Teacher

Head Teacher

Green Meadow Primary School

Director of Admissions

Director of Admissions

Greene's College Oxford

Your thoughts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *