We often hear in the media that the markets and businesses like certainty. As someone who spends a lot of time talking to school leaders, I can assure you that the same is true of school trusts – and there has been precious little of it recently.
Each July trusts are required to submit budget forecast returns to the Department for Education – documents that take weeks of work and dovetail with strategy for the academic years ahead. But this year’s returns became out of date within days due to a barrage of unplanned and unfunded costs.
That is frustrating not just for the wasted effort, but for the damage it does to the ability of school trusts to plan ahead, and to tackle economic challenges in intelligent and innovative ways.
Our Confederation of School Trust members have a wealth of experience in tackling costs to invest more in frontline education, or to provide wraparound services that support their local community – but high-quality approaches take time to develop and deliver.
Trust leaders support fair pay for teachers and support staff, but with most following national pay regimes they have little input into what is often the most substantial cost to their organisations. They rely instead on guidance from DfE. This year the proposed teachers’ pay award was two-thirds higher than government had been suggesting, and support staff up to three times higher – with no extra cash to meet the difference.
Trusts can’t do this on shifting foundations
Our analysis suggests that unfunded pay changes saw trusts cut their estimated reserves at the end of summer term by 40 per cent. Together with rising energy costs and general inflation, more than half of trusts could be in deficit by 2024/5 if cost pressures remain the same.
Trusts are having to look at options for in-year savings, including reducing the breadth of the curriculum offered, increasing class sizes, closing specialist facilities in special and alternative provision schools, cutting staff training, and pausing building maintenance and capital investment. It’s not something any of them want to be doing.
Trust leaders tell us they are exploring how to maximise income through things like the hire of facilities or to reduce costs through re-targeting capital spending on energy saving measures, but these are unlikely to meet the long-term funding gap.
There remains significant uncertainty on future energy prices, with help only promised until the end of March and our analysis finding the majority of trusts will be renewing contracts after that support expires. There is no guarantee that future per-pupil funding will keep pace with costs. There are frequent calls for free school meals to be extended, but as food inflation increases even what is offered now is not fully covered by central funding.
We know economic times are tough, but our school trusts have the talent and expertise to find innovative and cost-effective ways to keep improving education and supporting their local communities.
They can’t do this on shifting foundations though.
They need government to help by setting out spending plans that they can rely on for not just the next six months, but for multiple academic years beyond. Otherwise, any dreams of levelling up or growing the economy will remain dreams drastically distant from reality.
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