One in five council-run primaries could be plunged into deficit as the falling rolls crisis deepens, with 20 per cent of teachers already laid off in the worst-hit areas.
Research by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), released today, also shows pupil numbers have fallen in every region since 2018, as schools cut classes to keep their heads above water.
The findings have prompted calls for ministers to hand primaries more cash to help them weather the storm.
National Association of Headteachers general secretary Paul Whiteman urged the government “to continue to invest and support local authorities to maintain staffing and resources”, instead of “reducing funding or closing schools”.
Every region impacted
“This could build capacity for greater SEND inclusion and enable schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help, as well as giving an opportunity to reduce problematic levels of workload for school staff.”
Primary pupil numbers have declined in every region of the country since 2017-18, the NFER analysis revealed. London (-8.7 per cent) was worst affected, with the east of England (-0.2 per cent) registering the smallest fall.
The body also found schools “are having to reduce the number of classes (4.8 per cent nationally) and average class size (2.5 per cent nationally) in response”.
In the 10 London boroughs most impacted by squeezed rolls, classes have dropped 11.5 per cent, with class sizes cut 5.9 per cent since 2017-18.
Across England, full-time classroom teachers have been reduced by 2.3 per cent over the same period.
The figure rises as high as 18.8 per cent in the 10 parts of London hardest hit by falling rolls and 7.5 per cent in the 10 most impacted local authorities outside the capital.
‘Additional support needed’
The research added this is against a national trend of increasing teaching assistant numbers (5.7 per cent).
NFER noted “this raises important questions about the impact that declining roles may have been having on the quality provision” for children with special needs as TAs play a “key role” in supporting those with SEND.
The organisation’ scenario modelling also found a 2 per cent decrease in pupil numbers would see almost 19.3 per cent of primaries running a deficit, if they take no cost-saving measures, up from 14.8 per cent.
The figure would rise 26.8 and 40.8 per cent respectively if falls of 5 and 10 per cent occur.
Julia Harnden, of the ASCL school leaders’ union, added Labour should provide “additional support to help protect” primaries from “the impact of demographic changes”.
With pupil drops also set to hit secondaries, ministers need “to give thought now about a funding model which improves the sustainability of the education system”.
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