The leader of the National Education Union (NEU) has said teachers could walk out on strike as soon as the autumn term if the government won’t up its pay offer and fully-fund the increase.
Daniel Kebede told journalists at the union’s annual conference in Harrogate he was “very convinced” a formal ballot would cross the required 50 per cent turnout threshold, after an indicative poll fell short at just over 47 per cent.
Members voted today to back a plan to move to a formal ballot “if the final outcome of the [School Teachers’ Review Body] process remains unacceptable or if the government does not announce real terms funding increases in the June spending review”.
In its evidence to the STRB last year, the Department for Education said 2.8 per cent pay rise “would be appropriate” for 2025-26, adding that schools would need to find “efficiencies” to fund some of the increase.
However, the DfE has since admitted schools will be able to afford less than half of the 2.8 per cent pay rise proposed for next year, despite the increase in funding announced at last autumn’s budget.
Kebede called on Bridget Phillipson to publish the STRB report “immediately”. The education secretary said last year it was the “government’s intention” to announce the upcoming pay awards “as close to the start of the financial year of April as possible”.
“We know that it’s on her desk currently. Once we do have that made public and we are aware of the funding settlement, the executive will consider the next steps,” said Kebede.
‘Two main trigger points’ for a ballot
Asked what the union would deem to be “acceptable”, he said this would either be up to its ruling executive, or the question could be put to members. But “we would need to see a pay recommendation and funding offer” above the 2.8 per cent put forward.
And on the timing of a potential ballot, Kebede said the conference motion set out “two main trigger points” – the government’s response to the STRB report and the end of the spending review in June.
Asked for the earliest members could walk out, Kebede said: “If we’re looking at June for the spending review’s conclusion, a ballot process would potentially open up after that. These are not quick, so you would be looking autumn term.”
Kebede said it would be possible for the union to launch a ballot in the summer term which would close in the autumn.
He added that the funding settlement “is absolutely as important as [the actual percentage]” of any rise.
Kebede ‘convinced’ NEU would reach thresholds
An indicative online ballot which closed last week found 84 per cent of voting NEU members said they would be “willing to take action to secure an increased pay award”.
However, the turnout in that ballot was 47.2 per cent, which in a formal ballot would fall below the 50 per cent threshold unions must meet for legal industrial action.
Asked if he was worried about the turnout figure, Kebede said “47 per cent on a survey is very significant. Over 100,000 teachers voted to take strike action. That is incredibly significant.
“If we are forced into a position because the government have not accepted pay review body recommendation above inflation, for example, and we are forced into a position of a formal ballot, then we will be putting every ounce of resource into getting through those Tory thresholds. And I’m very convinced that we would do that.”
He added that he thought members “will be much more certain in their decisions generally, once they know what the actual final offer is. That’s very clear.”
The government’s pay offer in 2022-23 led to eight days of national strike action by the NEU in 2023, the first since restrictive new anti-strike laws came into effect in 2016. The strikes paid off: later that year the Conservative government rubber-stamped a rise of 6.5 per cent.
Phillipson said this week warned that “with school staff, parents and young people working so hard to turn the tide on school attendance, any move towards industrial action by teaching unions would be indefensible”.
But Kebede today quoted an NEU member during the debate on the motion, who said that “underfunding of education is indefensible”.
‘We want to avoid strike action’
He also insisted the union “really want[s] to avoid strike action.
“I’ve never met a teacher, teaching assistant who actually enjoys it, wants to do it. But the government do need to recognise it’s in their hands, and the membership have been really clear.
“Schools are in crisis. You’ve got to bear in mind, this government have been elected nine months on the promise of change and their base, teachers, education staff, the Labour government base, really of core vote, it is already dissatisfied with their current positions.”
He said action was “completely avoidable…but we quite simply can’t continue enduring an education system in which there aren’t enough maths teachers, science teachers, in which the schools are in disrepair and which has a crisis in recruitment and retention, not just of teaching staff, but support staff.
“We all want to see that prosperous country, the economic growth, but we have to invest in education and the children and the future of the nation to achieve that.”
The NEU has called for a pay “correction”, warning teachers’ pay has been eroded in real-terms by 20 per cent since 2010. But Kebede insisted they were not demanding such a rise all at once.
“I don’t think anyone in that room in the conference hall is expecting a 20 per cent pay award in one go. What we would like to see is a series of above inflation pay awards that fundamentally make the teachers’ pay more competitive.”
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