Schools

Plummeting pupil numbers turn tables on place planning

Over 1.1m places have been created since 2010, but pupil numbers are expected to drop by over 900,000 in the next decade

Over 1.1m places have been created since 2010, but pupil numbers are expected to drop by over 900,000 in the next decade

schools pupils characteristics

Plummeting pupil numbers will wipe out the need for the equivalent of 80 per cent of the new school places created since 2010, analysis of government data suggests.

Statistics published today reveal 1,161,976 school places have been created since 2010, most of them in primary schools. They were needed to accommodate a population bulge caused by a baby boom in the 2000s.

But the bulge is starting to move out of the school system, and the latest government pupil number predictions anticipate the population of primary and secondary schools will fall by 935,753 between 2022 and 2032.

Between 2010 and 2022, 720,770 primary places were created. Between 2022 and 2032, primary pupil numbers are due to drop by 760,747.

Falling pupil numbers are already creating problems for primary schools, especially in areas like London where Brexit and rising housing costs are driving emigration.

Schools Week revealed earlier this year how Lambeth council is considering merging up to 16 of its primary schools as plummeting pupil numbers threaten the viability of education in the capital.

A million school places unfilled

There are more than a million unfilled places in primary and secondary schools at present, though the government said this could be evidence of councils planning ahead and new schools filling up from year 7.

Today’s school capacity data shows there were 569,287 unfilled primary places nationally in 2021-22, the highest level in at least 12 years.

The number of unfilled secondary places declined however, to 501,733. Secondary pupil numbers are still rising, but are expected to peak next year.

The rate of primary places being added has also “slowed dramatically” in response to the decline in the birth rate between 2012 and 2020.

In 2021-22, just 5,000 primary places were created, down from around 27,000 a year between 2018 and 2020, and around 100,000 a year between 2012 and 2016.

Over 41,000 secondary places were created last year, however, to accommodate the still increasing population. The proportion of secondary schools at or over capacity increased from 22 per cent in 2020-21 to 23 per cent last year.

Fewer primary schools – 17 per cent – are at or over capacity, the same level as in 2020-21, and down from 23 per cent in 2016-17.

Latest education roles from

IT Technician

IT Technician

Harris Academy Morden

Teacher of Geography

Teacher of Geography

Harris Academy Orpington

Lecturer/Assessor in Electrical

Lecturer/Assessor in Electrical

South Gloucestershire and Stroud College

Director of Management Information Systems (MIS)

Director of Management Information Systems (MIS)

South Gloucestershire and Stroud College

Exams Assistant

Exams Assistant

Richmond and Hillcroft Adult & Community College

Lecturer Electrical Installation

Lecturer Electrical Installation

Solihull College and University Centre

Sponsored posts

Sponsored post

Retirement planning and financial resilience – what do teachers need to think about?

Regional Manager, Oonagh Morrison, from Wesleyan Financial Services, discusses how financial resilience can impact retirement planning.

SWAdvertorial
Sponsored post

From Provision to Purpose: Making Internal AP Work for Every Pupil

Across England, a quiet transformation is underway. In schools up and down the country, leaders are reshaping how we...

SWAdvertorial
Sponsored post

Dream Big Day: Empowering Every Pupil to Imagine, Create, and Flourish

In today’s rapidly evolving world, educators face an immense challenge: How do we inspire young people to envision ambitious...

SWAdvertorial
Sponsored post

Reframing digital skills for the workforce of tomorrow

No longer just for those with a passion for technology: why digital skills matter

SWAdvertorial

More from this theme

Schools

School staff scholarships announced to tackle antisemitism

Long-awaited £7m training contract will also help schools navigate 'difficult' conversations on Israel-Gaza conflict

Schools Week Reporter
Schools

Schools say they need more funding to hit 2030 tech target

One-third of schools say they will be unable to hit new technology targets in the next five years

Lydia Chantler-Hicks
Schools

Support plans ‘misused’ to ‘force out’ teachers from schools, say campaigners

More than 100 teachers have shared stories of the 'misuse' of support plans, which they say are pushing out...

Lydia Chantler-Hicks
Schools

Government promises new school complaints guidance

Ministers drawing up advice for both schools and parents, as new research launched to tackle issue

Jack Dyson

Your thoughts

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *