As the general election enters its final week – we take a look at the odds of education MPs returning to parliament.
Schools Week used YouGov’s Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification model for our seat predictions in this guide, which was based on interviews with approximately 100,000 people about their voting intentions at the end of November.
While the samples in each seat are too small to produce “reliable” constituency estimates, YouGov correctly predicted 93 per cent of seats and the overall hung parliament result in 2017.
The odds of MPs regaining their seat were taken from Odds Checker and were correct as of Friday, December 6th.
However given the constant changes in the polls and domination of Brexit, which is expected to lead to more tactical voting than ever before, there could be more shocks than usual.
Nicky Morgan and Justine Greening, who served as education secretary from 2014-16 and 2016-18 respectively, don’t feature in our round-up as they have confirmed they won’t be standing in the election.
Gavin Williamson, education secretary
Party: Conservative
Constituency: South Staffordshire
Majority in 2017: 22,733 (69.8 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds (of winning seat): 1/200
Damian Hinds, education secretary 2018-19 
Party: Conservative
Constituency: East Hampshire
Majority in 2017: 25,852 (63.6 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/50
Michael Gove, education secretary 2010-14
Party: Conservative
Constituency: Surrey Heath
Majority in 2017: 24,943 (64.2 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/12
Nick Gibb, schools minister 
Party: Conservative
Constituency: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
Majority in 2017: 14,494 (59 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/100
Kemi Badenoch, children’s minister (on maternity leave) 
Party: Conservative
Constituency: Saffron Walden
Majority in 2017: 24,966 (61.8 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/200
Michelle Donelan, temporary children’s minister 
Party: Conservative
Constituency: Chippenham
Majority in 2017: 16,630 (54.7 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/4
Angela Rayner, shadow education secretary 
Party: Labour
Constituency: Ashton-under-Lyne
Majority in 2017: 11,295 (60.4 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Likely Labour
Odds: 1/5
Mike Kane, shadow schools minister 
Party: Labour
Constituency: Wythenshawe and Sale East
Majority in 2017: 14,944 (62.2 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Labour
Odds: 1/12
Layla Moran, education spokesperson 
Party: Liberal Democrat
Constituency: Oxford West and Abingdon
Majority in 2017: 816 (43.7 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Likely Lib Dem
Odds: 1/6
Robert Halfon, chair of education select committee 
Party: Conservative
Constituency:
Majority in 2017: 7,031 (54 per cent of vote)
Prediction: Safe Conservative
Odds: 1/20
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