Odds-on: Will education MPs be heading back to parliament?

As the general election enters its final week – we take a look at the odds of education MPs returning to parliament.

Schools Week used YouGov’s Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification model for our seat predictions in this guide, which was based on interviews with approximately 100,000 people about their voting intentions at the end of November.

While the samples in each seat are too small to produce “reliable” constituency estimates, YouGov correctly predicted 93 per cent of seats and the overall hung parliament result in 2017.

The odds of MPs regaining their seat were taken from Odds Checker and were correct as of Friday, December 6th.

However given the constant changes in the polls and domination of Brexit, which is expected to lead to more tactical voting than ever before, there could be more shocks than usual.

Nicky Morgan and Justine Greening, who served as education secretary from 2014-16 and 2016-18 respectively, don’t feature in our round-up as they have confirmed they won’t be standing in the election.

 

Gavin Williamson, education secretary

Party: Conservative

Constituency: South Staffordshire

Majority in 2017: 22,733 (69.8 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds (of winning seat): 1/200

 

 

Damian Hinds, education secretary 2018-19

Party: Conservative

Constituency: East Hampshire

Majority in 2017: 25,852 (63.6 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/50

 

 

Michael Gove, education secretary 2010-14

Party: Conservative

Constituency: Surrey Heath

Majority in 2017: 24,943 (64.2 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/12

 

 

Nick Gibb, schools minister

Party: Conservative

Constituency: Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Majority in 2017: 14,494 (59 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/100

 

 

Kemi Badenoch, children’s minister (on maternity leave)

Party: Conservative

Constituency: Saffron Walden

Majority in 2017: 24,966 (61.8 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/200

 

 

Michelle Donelan, temporary children’s minister

Party: Conservative

Constituency: Chippenham

Majority in 2017: 16,630 (54.7 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/4

 

 

Angela Rayner, shadow education secretary

Party: Labour

Constituency: Ashton-under-Lyne

Majority in 2017: 11,295 (60.4 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Likely Labour

Odds: 1/5

 

 

Mike Kane, shadow schools minister

Party: Labour

Constituency: Wythenshawe and Sale East

Majority in 2017: 14,944 (62.2 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Labour

Odds: 1/12

 

 

Layla Moran, education spokesperson

Party: Liberal Democrat

Constituency: Oxford West and Abingdon

Majority in 2017: 816 (43.7 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Likely Lib Dem

Odds: 1/6

 

 

Robert Halfon, chair of education select committee

Party: Conservative

Constituency:

Majority in 2017: 7,031 (54 per cent of vote)

Prediction: Safe Conservative

Odds: 1/20