The National Education Union (NEU) would likely await the outcome of the pay review process before formally balloting for strikes.
Union members will this week be asked to endorse a plan to only launch a ballot if the teacher pay increase process yields an “unacceptable” offer.
A motion to the union’s conference in Harrogate will also call on its leadership to “consider disengaging from the school teachers’ review body process if government do not accept any STRB recommendation above inflation”.
An indicative online ballot which closed last week found 84 per cent said they would be “willing to take action to secure an increased pay award”. The government has recommended a rise of 2.8 per cent to the STRB.
However, the turnout in that ballot was 47.2 per cent, which in a formal ballot would fall below the 50 per cent threshold unions must meet for legal industrial action.
An emergency motion, due to be moved by members of the union’s ruling executive in a private session tomorrow, will argue the government’s recommendation of 2.8 per cent is “inadequate and unfunded”.
However, it will seek to delay any formal ballot until after the STRB report and government response is published.
“This represents another real terms cut. This further decreases the competitiveness of teacher pay and will prevent the government achieving their target of recruiting 6,500 teachers.”
It will also point to research by unions’ School Cuts campaign, which found 76 per cent of primaries and 94 per cent of secondaries faced having to make cuts.
‘Prepare for a ballot’
The motion states the indicative ballot had “sent a strong message to government”, and calls for a “fully-funded above inflation pay rise for educators”.
Although the current CPI inflation rate stands at 2.8 per cent, wage growth in the wider economy is set to hit 3.7 per cent this year.
The motion, if passed, would instruct the union’s executive to “prepare for a formal ballot”, and launch one “if the final outcome of the STRB process remains unacceptable or if the government does not announce real terms funding increases in the June spending review”.
It would also instruct the leadership to “consider disengaging from the STRB process if government do not accept any STRB recommendation above inflation”.
The STRB can, and has in the past recommended pay rises over and above the remit set for them by government. Ministers can defy the pay review body, as education secretary Damian Hinds did in 2018, but it is unusual for them to do so.
Speaking last week, Daniel Kebede, the NEU’s general secretary, said: “Our members know that there needs to be a major pay correction, with teacher pay significantly improved against inflation and other professions, for us to have any hope of filling vacancies in our schools or attracting graduates into teaching.
“The government’s response is a 2.8 per cent increase from September which will be below inflation and way behind earnings growth in the wider economy.
“To add insult to injury, the pay offer is unfunded, with government suggesting ‘efficiencies’ will cover the cost. Our members tell us every day of the desperate state their schools are in due to lack of funding – and this will only make things worse.”
Most reject rise, but turnout below threshold
The preliminary electronic ballot, of serving teacher members who work in state schools in England ran from March 1 to April 11.
It asked two questions. Just under 94 per cent voted to reject the government’s “recommendation of an unfunded 2.8 per cent pay rise”.
And just under 84 per cent said they would be “willing to take action to secure an increased pay award”.
However, the overall turnout was 134,487 – equivalent to 47.2 per cent of those eligible to vote.
The formal ballot in 2023 that prompted the first national strikes since 2016 saw 90.44 per cent voting to strike, on a turnout of 53.27 per cent.
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