Absence rates are lower than just after covid, but they are still far too high. There is little evidence that absence makes the heart grow fonder: kids are not returning in droves despite schools being a source of friendship and esteem, as well as a place from which bright futures are built.
Thankfully someone who knows what they are talking about has a plan. Moira Wallace was director of Tony Blair’s Social Exclusion Unit when they set out to tackle high rates of school absenteeism. She has just published a report for the Institute for Government on exactly this topic.
When they started in 1997, absence rates were 6 per cent at primary and 9 per cent at secondary, very similar to today’s figures. By 2013 absence rates had fallen to 4 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. That looks like success to me!
Data for persistent absence rates only go back to 2005, when these were 14 per cent at primary and 25 per cent at secondary, again very similar to today’s figures. They fell to 8 per cent and 14 per cent by 2013.
In short, we have solved this problem before, and that should give us hope.
The Wallace report has many excellent recommendations. The first is that the solutions will not come primarily from schools. That doesn’t mean that schools have no part to play, but things like access to mental health services are important and are outside schools control.
If the government holds schools solely responsible for absence, we will just get a more demoralised school workforce and higher rates of teachers leaving. That won’t help anyone.
The approach needs to be cross-government, and it needs to be led by the Prime Minister and 10 Downing Street. Only they have the clout to force departments to work together.
Given that opportunity is already a cross-government mission, the government ought to be able to set up an inter-departmental approach to absence very easily as part of that mission.
The solutions will not come primarily from schools
Last time round, “the work was overseen by a ministerial group on exclusion and truancy chaired by a DfE minister and including ministers from the Home Office, Health, Treasury, and the Minister for Housing and Local Government”. That seems like a good place to start.
The DfE needs to seek out allies in government. A surge in street crime in 2002 – much of it committed by kids playing truant – got the Home Office and Police Forces onside then. What are the equivalent arguments now? Reducing crime and reliance on health care is a good ambition itself, but should make others keen to help on truancy.
Of course the DfE can make a difference itself. It is for the department to share best practice, and they can allow a more flexible curriculum which we know is sometimes necessary.
Many of the approaches will cost money – including to tackle the awful, tragic epidemic of homeless children. At some point the Treasury will have to cough up.
Other things, such as curriculum, cost little or nothing. We should also take seriously the 2022 National Audit Office review into vulnerable adolescent provision across different departments. It found costly duplication time and time again. Stamping out this sort of waste should be a priority for a cash-strapped government.
Wallace rightly recommends that we pilot things and see if they work. Back in the day, Labour started with just 24 local authorities. “Casting around for solutions” is okay, so long as data are collected and there is proper evaluation. Repeat after me: test and learn! The EEF should be devoting a lot of time and budget to running trials in this area.
Finally, celebrate all the successes. Absence rates coming down will be a success, but they will also cause other successes.
Lower absence rates almost certainly mean NEET rates falling a few years later. That means stronger economic growth rates and lower welfare spending. Likewise, they almost certainly mean lower crime rates, fewer young people caught up in a cycle of youth violence, better mental health and lower rates of self-harm.
This problem will not be solved overnight. But it has been solved in the past, and we can solve it again.
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