The government is being urged to “examine more closely” the reasons pupils leave state schools after analysis found a surge in departures in London.
The Education Policy Institute (EPI) issued the calls in a new report, published today, analysing the movement of primary pupils in the capital.
It found 23 schools have already closed across the 10 local authorities worst hit by falling rolls and that some parts of London will see pupil numbers fall by as much as 30 per cent.
But the city’s falling rolls issue hasn’t just been caused by birth rate dips.
Of the cohort that started reception in 2017, 10.1 per cent were recorded as having left the state sector. For the cohort that started in 2012-13, the figure was 8 per cent.
The increase meant reception children that started school in 2017-18 “were more likely” to leave the education system than move within the capital.
This “could reflect the higher proportions of international families in London who are more likely to leave England” and that, for those living in the city, “independent schools are more of an option than elsewhere”.
“This underscores the need to examine more closely the role of emigration, independent schooling, home education, and the prevalence of ‘unexplained exits’ and how these patterns interact with other socio-economic challenges pupils may face,” the report added.
National Association of Headteachers general secretary Paul Whiteman said: “Unpredictable pupil demographic changes are making long-term school place planning increasingly difficult.
“We need a joined-up strategy that puts pupils and communities first, avoiding the temptation to take knee-jerk, reactive decisions that undermine stability.”
London worst-hit
EPI’s research found the impact of falling rolls over the next five years “is projected to be more pronounced in London compared to the rest of the country”, with declines expected in “almost all” boroughs.
By 2028-29, primary pupil numbers in Islington and Lambeth are forecast to have fallen “by around 30 per cent compared to a decade earlier”.
EPI also revealed 23 schools have closed in the 10 councils with the “largest declines” in primary pupil drops since 2020-21.
But three of the authorities reported “no change in primary school numbers”, demonstrating “such declines do not automatically lead” to closures.
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