The government would struggle to cut overall education spending without taking the axe to school budgets, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned, prompting renewed calls for greater investment from the Treasury.
A new report from the think tank found that if the Department for Education’s budget is cut in line with other “unprotected” areas of government spending, it faces a cut of £2.6 billion, or a 3 per cent real-terms drop.
Government departments have been expected to find savings as part of the ongoing spending review, which concludes in June.
If they wanted to make that cut without affecting schools and the 16 to 19 budget – something they have traditionally opted-for – ministers would have to slash “more than 20 per cent” from other spending areas, such as adult education, apprenticeships and higher education support, the IFS warned.
Government could save 3 per cent, or £2 billion, from the schools budget buy freezing spending per-pupil in real-terms between 2025 and 2028 as pupil numbers start to fall. A population bulge is currently making its way through the secondary phase.
Doing this would leave spending per-pupil “at a similar level to 2010”.
But schools already face huge pressures, as funding increases in recent years have not kept pace with rising costs. And pressures on high needs budgets are due to rise by over £2 billion over that same three-year period, making it “harder to cut school budgets over the next few years”.
‘Difficult choices’
Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at the IFS and co-author of the report, said June’s spending review “will involve some difficult choices on education spending.
“There is pressure to protect school and college funding. School budgets have been squeezed by rising costs, particularly special educational needs provision.”
Protecting school and college funding “might mean cuts of more than 20 per cent to spending on skills, apprenticeships and higher education support.
“Avoiding cuts to the education budget altogether would require deeper cuts to other public service spending, tax rises or extra borrowing.”
Paul Whiteman, general secretary of leaders’ union NAHT, said schools “simply don’t have any leeway for further cuts – and a lack of fresh investment is a cut.
“We desperately need to see new money and sustained investment from the Treasury.”
Julia Harnden, funding specialist at leaders’ union ASCL, added the IFS analysis “will make harrowing reading for school and college leaders already faced with intense pressures on their budgets.
“If education spending is cut – however that is done – it will represent a new period of austerity which neither young people nor the country as a whole can afford.”
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