Expert staff shortages are key threat to £1.8bn SEND reform plans

Most councils with public SEND reform plans fear a shortage of specialist staff for the new £1.8 billion “experts at hand” service threatens to undermine their proposals.

Controversial targets and “success measures” on reductions in statutory support plans are also being proposed by town halls.

In a landmark transparency project, Schools Week is publishing copies of the first 40 local SEND reform plans released by councils, accessible to the sector and to families via an interactive map.

We scoured council websites and requested copies of the high-stakes draft plans submitted in June. If approved this month, the plans will unlock a 90 per cent SEND deficit write-off.

Most councils are not publishing their draft reports at this stage, instead waiting for the ministerial green light before sharing their plans with the public.

But Schools Week analysis of available documents reveals what is potentially coming down the line for schools and families.

We found:

• 28 councils so far believe it is likely that workforce challenges for specialist staff could undermine their plans – with some calling for government support.
• Councils are planning “grow your own” pipelines amid a chronic shortage of experts – with some hoping to link with university training courses and academy trusts.
• Councils are also setting targets for reductions in education, health and care plan (EHCP) numbers and requests, with plans to restrict special school admissions.
• Some areas could see a massive rise in the number of inclusion bases in just three years.
• But there are fears in some town halls that the “fragmented” school system could hamper inclusion.
• Nearly half of plans contain scant details on post-16 provision.

Margaret Mulholland, SEND and inclusion specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders, said the plans were “key” to outlining what a new system will look like.

“For school leaders, they need to know the framework they will be working within – and be reassured they will not be left to carry sole responsibility for support they cannot obtain quickly enough.

“Parents too will obviously be keen to know what support is going to be available in their area and how they can access this.”

Tranparency is vital

She added that transparency was “absolutely vital” throughout this whole process.

“Everyone should have the opportunity to view, understand and interrogate these plans and it is therefore important they are published in good time to allow this to happen.”

The Department for Education (DfE) asked “local area SEND partnerships” – which include education, health and care services as well as parent representatives – to formulate the plans.

But the government expects 151 councils with responsibility for SEND to be the “system” conveners, “taking the lead” to bring all partners together.

The partnerships were asked to set out for ministers five potential risks and what mitigations were in place.

Of the 40 draft plans analysed, 36 expressed some concerns about staffing the experts at hand service.

The flagship service, launched this month with £1.8 billion in government funding over three years, aims to increase mainstream schools’ access to external support from educational psychologists (EPs), speech and language therapists, occupational therapists and specialist teachers.

Special schools are also expected to provide outreach support.

But the system is already creaking amid a national shortage of specialists, particularly EPs.

Twenty-eight councils said it was “likely” that the risk could materialise, with two rating it as “very likely”.

Most said it would have a “critical” impact – defined in the DfE’s terms as a “significant and sustained disruption to activity”.

Cheshire West and Chester said the existing challenges pose a “significant constraint on our ability to deliver the offer”.

Nineteen councils also worried that parents would not be on board with reforms. Seven more expected a spike of requests for EHCPs.

Cambridgeshire warned that, if new individual support plans are not “seen as robust or legally secure”, parental confidence may drop and EHCP “demand may spike” during the transition to the new system.

The struggle to cope

Sixteen town halls said mainstream schools in their area may struggle to cope with supporting children with additional needs.

Another 16 said their workforces could struggle to deliver changes at the required pace, with 14 councils raising concerns about funding and structural changes to health boards.

SEND partnerships have been tasked with creating the experts at hand service from this month. It is a key part of the government’s reforms.

Yet there is already a chronic shortage of EPs, with a “stark disparity” in provision between regions, according to the Education Policy Institute.

Barnsley plans to complete a workforce gap analysis by the end of this year to identify the roles it needs to fill most urgently.

Five councils plan to prioritise schools where demand for specialist support is highest.

East Sussex wants a council official to take up a “navigator” role for each cluster of schools, advising leaders on inclusion strategies and signposting them to support.

If specialists remain in short supply, South Gloucestershire said it would instead “accelerate” plans for special school outreach.

The recruitment problem is particularly acute in coastal areas.

The Isle of Wight said it faced “unique circumstances”, while Cornwall warned that its “constrained workforce” meant creating a new team could destabilise existing services, including other NHS teams.

Six councils including the Isle of Wight are proposing a “grow your own” pathway, recruiting assistants who can train to become fully qualified on the job.

Oxfordshire, East Sussex and Hounslow said they would work with universities to create workforce pipelines.

Solihull said it would explore working with local academy trusts to develop training routes for specialist roles.

It has already inflated salary scales for EPs and re-established senior practitioner roles to “entice” private specialists to work for the council part-time.

Increase in training places needed

But a big issue is the limited number of places on government training schemes for EPs, with 1,766 applicants for just 204 spaces on university courses across England last year.

East Sussex called for an increase in training places. Coventry requested government workforce support.

Donna Wiggett, general secretary of the Association of Educational Psychologists, said proposals were “helpful” but “unlikely to enable enough recruitment to meet government plans unless they are backed by a funded national workforce strategy”.

Wiggett said that, while assistant roles can support workforces, these “must remain properly supervised and must not be used to replace the work of qualified EPs”.

The education select committee warned in April that health services had “limited engagement” in the current SEND system, due to a “lack of robust and enforceable accountability mechanisms”.

East Sussex called for “clearer national expectations and accountability mechanisms for health partners”. Barnsley warned that it could face a “lack of alignment and capacity or pace” across partners.

Slough said it would monitor whether health input “routinely shapes earlier support”, while Hackney would encourage integrated care boards and MATs to “be equal partners in delivery”.

Meanwhile, Hertfordshire said it would have a formal memorandum of understanding – which outlines shared goals, terms and a plan of action – between the council and integrated care boards (ICBs).

Mulholland said one of the “biggest questions” for ministers is how to bring together working models of health and education. “It’s such a fragmented landscape, and some cohesion is needed.”

Mainstream schools in driving seat 

Ministers have pushed mainstream schools into the driving seat of reforms, with the expectation that all secondaries will have an inclusion base.

DfE officials told councils their plans should show “strong evidence” for an inclusive mainstream system.

In the plans we examined, Cambridgeshire aimed for the largest number of inclusion base places by 2029 – at 1,507 places.

Looking at percentage rises, Staffordshire has planned the largest hike in inclusion base places, from 24 to 424 by 2029 – a 1,667 per cent or almost 17-fold increase.

This is followed by Wigan’s rise from 60 to 352 and Leeds soaring from 27 to 124.

At the same time, Hounslow proposes to increase the proportion of pupils with an EHCP supported in mainstream from 42.5 per cent this year to 52 per cent by 2029.

In Brighton and Hove, the council wants to see an increase from 57 per cent to 65 per cent. It will open 17 inclusion bases by 2029.

Guidance released in June on inclusion bases said they should be operated by a qualified teacher and “should never be used as a sanction”.

Bases can be either specialist, commissioned by a council, or support, commissioned by a school or academy trust.

But areas are taking different approaches on how to roll inclusion bases out.

In Hackney, a “flexible commissioning model” could lead to two-year inclusion base agreements with schools, based on “evolving student numbers and specific needs”.

Dorset will develop a “corporate landlord model” to give “strategic oversight” of property and assets that could be used to expand inclusion bases.

But Wolverhampton said mainstream capacity was “extremely constrained” due to demand for places, leaving “scarce” opportunities to use existing space for inclusion bases.

Top marks for no increase

Schools Week revealed this year how councils would be given top marks by the government if their SEND plans included “little to no” plans to increase special school or alternative provision capacity.

This is despite them being under immense space pressures, with around two-thirds over capacity.

Special schools could expand where there are insufficient places for pupils with needs “less frequently met in inclusion bases”.

Some councils now appear to be working in line with the DfE’s expectations.

North Northamptonshire said expansion would only be considered where other options within mainstream or inclusion bases settings “have been exhausted”.

Worcestershire said it was planning “targeted growth” in special schools where analysis shows pupils’ needs “cannot be met safely and effectively through mainstream provision and inclusion bases alone”.

But Staffordshire said it wants to build a new 220-place school for pupils with autism and social, emotional and mental health needs to reduce out-of-area placements.

It would be funded by the government’s high needs provision capital grant, a pot ministers put pressure on councils to spend on inclusion bases.

Pauline Aitchison, from the National Network of Special Schools, said it was “clear from what I have seen that there is still the need to expand the special school places.

“I would also think that, while we are in this transition period, that is likely to continue to grow.

“Failing to recognise that and not listening to what schools or councils are saying means the government are going to have to relook at the strategy.”

One of the big drivers for expanding mainstream inclusion is the soaring spend on independent special schools (ISS), which reached £2 billion in recent years.

Schools Week analysis previously found councils were spending up to four times as much per pupil on private special places as state special places.

Brighton and Hove wants to “reduce reliance” on independent and out-of-area placements and plans no additional placements from 2027.

But Bath and North East Somerset said spending could not be reduced while the council waits three years for a new maintained special school to open.

Wider range of pupils

The government’s reforms mean schools that have historically struggled to be inclusive will need to cater for a wider range of pupils.

But seven councils warned the DfE that variations in school culture posed a risk to reforms.

Bristol pointed to a “fragmented” school system and is aiming to “secure commonality of inclusion policies within all settings”, including several large multi-academy trusts.

It warned that “proactive” schools could disproportionately access support.

Similar risks emerged from Bath and North East Somerset, which said different levels of inclusion across schools could undermine early intervention, increasing both the number of EHCPs and potential special school placements.

Worcestershire said ministers should clarify the expectations of trusts to engage with the council’s plans, particularly for standalone academies, smaller trusts or those with just one school in the region.

But Leora Cruddas, chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts, said trust leaders “have been at the forefront of calling for reforms to the SEND system” and “largely back the principles of the government’s proposals”.

She said the biggest risk flagged by leaders was the lack of qualified specialist staff.

“Close collaboration and the sharing of expertise and resources – both things baked into the trust approach – will be crucial,” she added.

Rural schools could struggle

Geography presents another challenge in Oxfordshire, which said rural schools could struggle with reforms.

To address this, the council plans a tailored strategy for rural and small schools, with “flexible and innovative solutions” including shared provision across clusters and satellite models.

East Sussex said it had a high proportion of small schools – including 50 with fewer than 150 pupils – with many experiencing falling rolls.

“This creates a significant risk that these schools lack the leadership capacity and staffing resilience required to deliver the work needed to meet partnership objectives.”

It plans to encourage small schools to work together to implement more “high quality inclusion strategies”.

Julie Kelly, chair of the National Association of Small Schools, said resources required to deliver inclusion “cannot be one-size-fits-all”.

“The government’s model risks assuming that every school has the same organisational capacity, economies of scale, access to specialist staff and physical space – they plainly do not.”

The DfE has told councils it will use the reform plans to establish a “baseline and ongoing monitoring of local area performance”.

Consultants testing previous proposed SEND reforms found bringing data together and using it across services was “a sign of a well-developed local system”.

Hackney wants to “eliminate historic data deficits” in its commissioning of alternative provision, with “live tracking mechanisms, enabling multi-agency teams to dynamically deploy support based on real-time attendance, suspension, and demographic profiles”.

But Staffordshire is looking for solutions to the “challenges” by sharing data between the council and health services.

Kingston plans to develop its “school SEND data dashboards” towards “dynamic, multi-agency ‘inclusion story’ dashboards”.

Admissions plans 

If ministers’ SEND proposals are realised, EHCPs and special schools will only be for those youngsters with “the most complex needs”.

Specialist provision, which includes inclusion bases, will be “underpinned by clear evidence-based” and yet-to-be-published specialist provision packages.

But councils have revealed their own admissions plans. Special schools typically have “designations” regarding which needs they cater for, such as autism or severe learning difficulties.

In 2028-29, discussions will be underway with Kingston’s special schools “with regard to the complexity of the needs of the pupils they support”.

“As mainstream schools support more pupils who would previously be accessing a specialist place, there is an opportunity to review these thresholds and ensure we have the pupils with the most complex needs in our special schools.”

There are currently four state special schools in the borough – three academies and one free school. Designations include moderate through to severe learning difficulties, as well as other needs like autism.

But academies do not have to comply with designation requests from councils.

A council spokesperson said its “long-term strategic discussions with academy trusts focus on place planning so that our most specialist facilities remain dedicated to pupils requiring the highest level of support.

“Strategic place planning does not alter legal thresholds for support, nor does it replace individual assessments and decision-making for children and young people.”

Broader and more flexible designations 

As mainstream inclusion strengthens in Hertfordshire, “special schools will evolve to meet increasingly complex and co-occurring needs”. This will include “broader and more flexible designations” and building adaptations.

This academic year, “initial redesignation” principles will be agreed for special schools “to support more complex profiles”.

Meanwhile in Hackney, admissions criteria for bases and special schools will be “revised to align with our co-produced graduated response descriptors”.

The council plans to “streamline” its graduated response for pupils with SEND into four tiers. It expects a reduction in the proportion of assessments that result in an EHCP.

But Madeline Cassidy, chief executive of the IPSEA support charity, said they were “particularly concerned about proposals that appear to move towards categorising children according to whether their needs are considered ‘complex’ or ‘non-complex’, rather than determining support based on each child’s individual needs as the law requires”.

As part of their plans, councils are now being asked to set “target metrics” to show how they have achieved their three-year vision.

But targets around reducing EHCP numbers have proven highly controversial in the past.

One of Solihull’s “success measures” is a 20 per cent reduction in the number of EHCP requests submitted by schools by 2029.

Their aim is for more pupils to benefit from “improved provision from their teaching staff receiving training and input” from EPs, SALTs and OTs.

Wigan expects to reduce “inappropriate” demand for EHC needs assessments in three years’ time. A success measure includes the proportion of EHC needs assessments which result in a plan to be reduced to 85 per cent, from 97 per cent.

Its end goal is that requests will be “purposeful, proportionate and evidence-based, demonstrating that mainstream support has been fully explored and reviewed”.

Compliance risks

But Wigan warned the DfE of potential legal compliance risks with its plan, because it  still has to abide by the Children and Families Act 2014 during the next three years.

Wigan said this includes “thresholds for EHC needs assessments and, when an EHC plan is required, decision making in relation to resource allocation and parental rights to appeal”.

To mitigate, the council will “maintain strict adherence” to the legal duties, and “strengthen-decision making quality assurance for EHC assessments, provision and placements to reduce challenge and inconsistencies”.

A council spokesperson wanted to reassurance parents that it was a “system-wide investment, focused on early intervention, mainstream inclusion and local provision.

“Our ambition is not to reduce support for children and young people with SEND.”

Hounslow is planning a 5 per cent annual reduction in the next three years for need assessments, “while maintaining timely access for those with the most complex needs”.

This will be aided by improving the capacity of mainstream settings to meet needs earlier.

Barnsley is aiming to reduce “EHCP growth rate” from about 9 per cent per year to 2 to 3 per cent.

A spokesperson said that, as inclusive practice improves in mainstream schools, its anticipated the growth in demand for EHCPs will reduce.

But Matt Keer, contributor to the Special Needs Jungle website, said targets around EHCPs and specialist provision “are tightly quantified, sharply defined and highly restrictive”.

“When these targets clash – and resource constraints make that inevitable – then the demand for suppression targets will win over the supply-side targets.

“These plans are likely to be Whitehall’s weapon of choice for keeping SEND costs down to 2029. Ideally, costs will fall organically as mainstream SEND provision beefs up – but if that doesn’t happen, then these plans can and will be used as a stick to suppress demand until the main SEND reforms kick in.”

The DfE said it recognised workforce capacity was a challenge in some areas, which is why plans include workforce and recruitment planning.

It expects EHCPs to increase at a slower rate as they begin to invest in the new system, with more children having needs met in mainstream.

“We’re proud of our once-in-a-generation reforms and are working alongside local government to make sure every child gets the right support, early on, without a fight,” a spokesperson said.

“We have received thousands of responses to our consultation and will continue to work closely with local authorities and ICBs across the country to make sure everyone has confidence in the system we are building.”