That pupils are picking up their GCSE results this week is an achievement in itself. Most haven’t had a school year unaffected in some way by the pandemic since year 8.
Being able to sit down and take a set of exams this summer is a reflection of their own hard work and that of their teachers, support staff, and school leaders who have worked tirelessly to keep the whole system going.
So here’s four things to look out for in tomorrow’s results.
1. Overall drop in grades should not become focus
We know results will be lower than last year and higher than in 2019, and we know roughly by how much. That’s by Ofqual’s design, not some failure in standards. We can only hope pupils are not let down at this stage by badly informed analysis and commentary.
Ofqual confirmed last autumn that grades would be around the midpoint of those in 2019 and 2021. Whilst I’m a statistician not a newspaper editor, I would suggest that “GCSE results are an average of two numbers” is neither an exciting or particularly telling headline.
If you insist, however, these results will likely equate to a fall in the average grade of around 0.3 grades on last year, up by the same amount on 2019. So this is certainly not a story of thousands of young people getting a string of grade 7s when they would have got half a dozen grade 4s in 2019.
There was no perfect solution to addressing teacher-assessed grade increases, but Ofqual’s approach does seem to strike a fair balance across different cohorts, while recognising the disruption this cohort faced.
It’s not a purely statistical exercise, there remains a professional judgement in setting grade boundaries and ultimately if two pupils get the same mark, they must be awarded the same grade. This difficulty to be precise was seen in last week’s A-level results.
2. We’ll know more about year 11 learning loss …
So, if the headline results don’t tell us much, what should we be looking out for?
We expect Ofqual to publish results from the National Reference Test (NRT) in English and mathematics, which are sat by a representative sample of year 11 students. Evidence of the impact of the pandemic on pupil outcomes is limited for this cohort, as the availability of data has meant that research has tended to focus on younger pupils.
The NRT provides a consistent measure over time for older pupils, with analysis published later last year suggesting outcomes in English had held steady but there had been falls in mathematics.
Our own research has highlighted learning loss persisting into the 2021-22 academic year, identifying disparities by both pupil characteristics and between different areas of the country
3. … and look out for more geographical divides
The statistics published this week will provide us results by region, and for the first time by smaller geographies.
Last week’s A-level results showed a widening gap between London and the south-east and the rest of the country, alongside particularly worrying results in the north-east. How this plays out for GCSEs will be of interest, with our analysis of results for younger pupils finding the pandemic’s effects more acutely felt in parts of the north and midlands than in London.
We’ll also see results by gender and across different subjects. Again, we would expect the most significant drops in subjects that saw the biggest increases in 2020 and 2021, such as computing, social sciences, and PE.
4. The disadvantaged gap might widen – but we won’t know tomorrow
The results of independent schools will no doubt come under scrutiny as they had amongst the largest percentage point increases in those being awarded grade 7 or above. But as John Jerrim argues, it’s important to set these differences within the context of relative changes.
What we won’t know at this stage is how results vary by different pupil groups, that comes later in the year. Going into the pandemic, pupils from low income backgrounds were typically around 18 months behind their peers when they sat their GCSEs and various studies have suggested the pandemic may have led to a widening of this gap.
The gap was widest for those in persistent poverty, and the number of pupils in that group was increasing even before double digit inflation and the spiralling cost of living. Schools themselves are highlighting the growing pressure on their budgets through increased pay and energy costs.
While schools continue to face significant challenges, in the coming weeks we’re likely to see the fifth education secretary enter the role since the pandemic began. Maybe this one should take inspiration from the country’s GCSE students: stick around, address those challenges, and get the job done.
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