As Andy Burnham’s premiership finds its footing, one of the most consequential policy decisions facing his new administration is building quietly in the background. The government’s response to the SEND reform consultation, which closed in May, is anticipated this autumn ahead of new legislation that aims to manage a financially unsustainable and legally overstretched system. Parents’ groups remain among the most vocal critics, arguing the reforms dilute their children’s hard-won rights. Schools have barely begun to grapple with the responsibilities the reforms appear to seek to transfer to them. For new education secretary Lucy Powell, navigating that tension while pushing through legislative change will be one of the defining early tests of the new government. SEND provision in this country is a textbook “wicked problem”, which describes issues with no definitive definition, no true or false solutions or any clear point at which the problem is solved. All stakeholders – parents, schools, local authorities and central government – act in good faith to support children with additional needs. But their individual actions frequently conspire to undermine the collective goal. Parents naturally want the best for their children. But navigating a system that feels inherently adversarial hardens positions quickly. Local authorities, meanwhile, are staffed by dedicated professionals who have been hamstrung by the cumulative effects of central government policy. Perverse incentives Far from being the villains of the piece, they are often as constrained as the families they serve – aware of the burden on schools, yet powerless to provide the necessary capacity. Schools are full of staff who go to extraordinary lengths to support their most vulnerable pupils. Yet perverse incentives persist. Short-term fixes such as one-to-one support for dysregulated children or exclusion as a last resort are unsustainable without adequate local authority funding and ultimately pass the challenge to another institution. True inclusion requires a whole-workforce approach. But it is nearly impossible for a single school to bear those costs when the broader system does not reward inclusive practice. To illustrate the scale of the challenge, the Elliot Foundation, which educates more than 15,000 pupils across 36 schools, spends £3.4 million a year to support children with additional needs because local authorities can’t meet their statutory 20-week deadlines. This sum, equivalent to the combined budgets of two primary schools, is effectively diverted from funding for the wider pupil population. These pressures play out against a backdrop of profound systemic strain. More than 1.8 million pupils in England, one in five, received SEN support in 2025-26, a 5.2 per cent rise on the previous year. £18 billion by 2029 The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts SEND spending could exceed £18 billion by 2029, outstripping the Ministry of Justice’s entire annual budget for day-to-day spending. While funding is no doubt important, even doubling the annual high-needs budget, currently £12 billion, wouldn’t likely resolve the underlying systemic issues in isolation. The aspiration set out in the white paper, Every Child Achieving and Thriving, pledged £4 billion of extra investment over three years for initiatives that include developing more early interventions in mainstream schools and access to more specialist support staff. Yet 68 per cent of respondents to Browne Jacobson’s spring 2026 school leaders survey said they didn’t believe the funding would achieve the vision for more SEND pupils to be educated in mainstream schools. There’s a deeper legal tension here, too. The reforms envisage schools playing a far greater role in delivering SEND provision. Yet under the current EHCP framework, schools occupy a relatively limited position of responsibility in the process. Rights of meaningful challenge sit with parents and young people, not schools, which would benefit from greater powers to intervene in the EHCP process. SEND tribunal appeals exceeded 25,000 in 2024-25, up from 7,000 in 2018-19. One-way street With 99 per cent of decided cases finding in favour of parents, the tribunal route has become a one-way street, although this figure erases the struggle of the many families without the knowledge, time or resources to appeal at all. There’s a risk that as the role of local authorities diminishes, parents inevitably direct their frustrations and legal challenges towards schools, at a time when 90 per cent of school leaders tell us parental complaints are escalating. More broadly, the nature of a “wicked problem” means a radical and potentially unpalatable approach may follow – one that simultaneously erodes some of the rights of SEND children, manages parental expectations, completely redesigns mainstream school approaches and reduces the competition for scarce resources between schools, trusts and local authorities. While these objectives appear to be the intent of current government reforms, the execution remains a concern. The risk is these changes may alienate the SEND community, leaving schools and trusts to manage the resulting fallout without the necessary support or funding to succeed. Schools can’t wait for the government to resolve this. Too often, they broadcast to parents rather than listen to them. If the eye of the SEND storm is shifting from local authorities to schools, the sector needs to get on the front foot now with honest dialogue and genuine collaboration before the storm arrives.