The total number of school pupils is predicted to fall by nearly nine per cent in the next five years, new government projections show, a sharper drop than predicted last year. New Department for Education figures projecting the number of pupils in school by 2031 predicts 8.6 per cent less pupils will be in school than there are currently – a drop from 7.81 million to 7.08 million. Pupil rolls have been steadily declining since 2019, due to the falling birth rate. Last year, the DfE said this drop would be at around 5 per cent. At a nursery and primary school level, the pupil population is forecast to fall by 473,000 over the next five years. This would be a 10.7 per cent drop between 2026 and 2031. Previously, the DfE said there would be a 6.7 per cent drop between 2025 and 2030. Secondary schools are predicted to see a 6.3 per cent decline in the number of pupils, totalling 2.97 million. The government previously said that secondaries would see a 3 per cent reduction in rolls. However, the number of pupils in special schools has increased by 4.8 per cent in 2026 to 178,000. It comes as government plans to make mainstream schools more inclusive for SEND pupils through its schools white paper. This continues the trend for the number of pupils in special schools, with around a 5 per cent rise since 2023 alone. The DfE predicts the total population in special schools will peak in 2027-28. One in three councils expect more than a fifth of primary school places will be unfilled next year, according to analysis by the Education Policy Institute. While it has particularly hit inner-city schools in places like London and Brighton, rural areas are also facing a decline in pupil numbers and potential school closures. Recent National Foundation for Educational Research analysis has now found “a clear link” between disadvantage and falling pupil numbers in England’s primary schools. Paul Whiteman, general secretary of school leader’s union NAHT, said: “Where pupil intake is dwindling, this puts pressure on schools’ finances given that their funding is heavily linked to pupil numbers and their fixed staffing costs do not fall in line with numbers on roll. “This can affect their ability to support existing staffing and curriculum breadth, and potentially affect their long-term viability, with small and rural schools especially vulnerable.” Whiteman called for funding “that supports schools experiencing falling rolls and recognises that trends can change over time – protecting existing staffing levels and seizing the opportunity to help schools offer smaller classes and deliver more targeted help for pupils who need it most”.