Disadvantaged primary schools have seen pupil numbers fall at more than twice the rate of schools with the least pupil deprivation, new analysis shows. The National Audit Office (NAO) previously warned falling pupil numbers “could disproportionately affect disadvantaged children as lower performing schools tend to have a higher proportion of both disadvantaged children and unfilled spaces”. But auditors noted that the Department for Education had not investigated this risk. New National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) analysis has now found “a clear link” between disadvantage and falling pupil numbers in England’s primary schools. It warns of a “growing divide” between schools losing the most pupils and those that are not, cautioning this “will increasingly hamper the education of disadvantaged pupils”. Amid declining birth rates, primary pupil numbers fallen by almost five per cent nationally, since peaking in 2018-19. NFER looked at whether schools with higher rates of disadvantage – using free school meals (FSM) eligibility as the measure – have seen the largest fall in pupil numbers since 2018-19. It found that across all schools in England “there is a clear correlation”. The least disadvantaged schools have seen pupil numbers drop by just 3.3 per cent, while the most disadvantaged saw pupil numbers fall at more than twice that rate, with an overall drop of 7.3 per cent. More pronounced among councils with biggest drop in pupils NFER also looked at areas of the country with the highest falls in pupil numbers, and found the differences were even more stark. “To some extent, this gives us a preview of what could happen more widely across England as numbers fall further,” said researchers. Across the 10 London boroughs that have experienced the largest drop, the most disadvantaged schools saw a 21.5 per cent drop in pupils. Source NFER This is more than four times larger than schools with the lowest FSM rates, where numbers fell by just 4.7 per cent. Researchers also looked at 10 council areas outside of London, where pupil numbers have fallen the most. They found that while “the same general pattern holds”, the differences were not as great as within the capital. “This may be because parents have more viable local options in London compared to other parts of the country,” said the report. Schools losing most pupils have highest FSM rates Meanwhile, NFER found that schools with the largest fall in pupil numbers have seen FSM rates increase the most in the last seven years, rising by 16 percentage points. Those with the smallest fall in pupils have seen FSM rates increase too, but a lesser extent, by 10 percentage points. Researchers described this as “a striking trend”, but added: “Other factors – such as the interaction between underlying levels of disadvantage and the universal credit transitional arrangements – may also explain the patterns observed.” The findings have “important implications for public policy”, NFER said. “Falling pupil numbers adversely affect a school’s funding, thereby hindering a schools’ ability to improve outcomes for students. “The evidence presented here shows that there is a growing divide between schools experiencing the most significant falls in pupil numbers and those that are not.” Researchers said this “will increasingly hamper the education of disadvantaged pupils” and “undermine” progress towards the government’s aim to halve the disadvantage gap in key stage 4 attainment. Government urged to give schools more support The report makes a number of recommendations. These include that DfE should “urgently assess the impact of falling pupil numbers on disadvantages pupils’ outcomes”, and should increase the level of support they give to schools, via councils, through the falling rolls fund. It also states councils must makes “proactive decisions” about the distribution of schools, and that councils and system leaders should work closely with schools to “monitor how pupil numbers are changing” and help schools plan accordingly, even before significant falls happen. Julia Harnden, deputy director of policy at the Association of School and College Leaders, said the research “identifies a significant risk to schools serving the most disadvantaged communities and requires urgent attention by the government”. “Falling pupil rolls means less funding and while schools will do everything they can to mitigate the impact on pupils, the stark reality is that they will have fewer resources. “These are exactly the schools which we particularly need to ensure are well-supported in their vital role of improving lives. “It is essential that these schools are not left to languish with mounting financial pressures caused by circumstances beyond their control.” The DfE has been approached for comment.