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‘Little progress’ made in closing university progression gap

Progress to get more disadvantaged pupils to attend university has stalled, warns think tank

Progress to get more disadvantaged pupils to attend university has stalled, warns think tank

1 Aug 2025, 10:47

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“Little progress” has been made to narrow the gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged pupils going on to university in the past year, new data shows.

Analysis by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) of government data on young people’s participation in higher education (HE) has shown a fall in progression rates for almost all groups of students.

But this is likely a hangover from increased acceptance rates of students whose A-level results were based on teacher assessment during the Covid-19 pandemic.

However, while progress has stalled for students on free school meals (FSM), there has been a narrowing in the gap between pupils with SEND and those without.

The EPI’s report said that “if the government is to make real progress in narrowing higher education participation gaps, it must ensure that disadvantaged students are properly supported to secure the grades at 18 they are capable of”.

Wider gap for FSM students…

Data shows students who are not eligible for free school meals (FSM) are 1.71 times more likely to progress to higher education than their FSM-eligible peers.

While FSM students were catching up with their peers from 2009 to 2017, progress has since plateaued. 

Progression rates fell across the board for “higher tariff” universities, which have high entry requirements.

But the rate of FSM students attending these settings saw a greater fall. Non-FSM students are now 2.92 times as likely to progress to a high-tariff university than their FSM-eligible counterparts, the highest rate since 2019-20.

…but smaller gap for SEN students

There has been “steady progress” in closing the gap between pupils with SEND and those without. Students with no SEND are now 2.37 times as likely to progress to university than those with SEND, down from 3.96 in 2009/10.

These improvements are consistent with reductions in the 16 to 19 attainment gap for students with SEND seen over recent years.

Girls remain more likely to enter higher education (1.33 times more) than boys.

‘Not surprising’

The EPI said there had been “little progress” in further narrowing the progression gap between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged students, but that this was “not surprising”.

Funding for disadvantaged students falls by a third during the 16 to 19 phase of education, meaning they fall three A-levels behind their better-off peers, the think tank added.

It said a pupil premium for these students should be introduced for 16-19 year olds along with at primary and secondary level.

“If the government is to make real progress in narrowing higher education participation gaps, it must ensure that disadvantaged students are properly supported to secure the grades at 18 they are capable of.”

Sarah Hannafin
Sarah Hannafin

Sarah Hannafin, head of policy at school leaders’ union NAHT, said while government data was not “supported by any analysis of why some young people are not progressing to university and it’s important to remember that higher education isn’t the only route to a fulfilling career for young people.

“The education secretary’s focus on closing the disadvantage gap is welcome.

“However, if real inroads are to be made we need not only increased funding for schools, but also more government investment in services like social care and mental health and tangible action to tackle poverty.”

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