Eleventh-hour bids to slash primary intakes face being snubbed if the moves leave children without a place, the admissions watchdog has warned. The Office of the Schools Adjudicator (OSA) has revealed some councils are lodging requests to cut the size of incoming reception cohorts after applications for the new academic year have closed. Many primaries rocked by the falling rolls crisis have had their published admission numbers (PANs) knocked down as they struggle to make ends meet. But in its annual report, released this morning, the OSA raised concerns that doing so post-deadline – long after the issue of declining rolls has emerged – could leave parents’ plans for the following September in tatters. “Parents may have formed an expectation that their child will be offered a place at a particular school based upon information from previous years,” the body argued. “In cases where parents and children will be disappointed, adjudicators will be less likely to approve proposed PAN variations.” ‘Severe’ financial hit The OSA added that this was “not to say that applications will not be approved”. However, approvals are only likely to be given if there are “reasonable alternative local schools” and the “adverse financial consequences… are likely to be severe if the PAN is not reduced”. The report – which covers the whole of 2025 – showed the number of bids lodged with the watchdog to vary admission arrangements rose by 17 per cent, from 132 in 2024 to 155 the following year. Almost all of them were from primaries hoping to cut intakes “due to a fall in applications for school places”. “We have continued to receive requests for approvals of PAN reductions after the closing date for admissions to primary schools,” the report continued. “This is some time after local authorities will have been aware of declining rolls.” Watchdog ‘inundated’ The OSA has told applicants its stretched team has been “inundated” with submissions, leaving it unable to conclude cases as quickly as in previous years. It urged local authorities to lodge applications earlier, rather than “wait until the position becomes urgent and expect adjudicators to process cases immediately”. They are unable to do this “due to the high volume of applications in relation to the limited number of adjudicators”. Projections have suggested pupil numbers will fall by 818,000 between 2022-23 and 2032-33, following a fall in the national birth rate. An Education Policy Institute study last year found the impact of this will be more pronounced in London over the next five years, with declines expected in “almost all” boroughs. Twenty-three schools had already closed across the 10 worst-hit authorities.