Ofsted ‘confident’ schools can’t predict inspections using website downloads

Ofsted is ‘confident’ schools can no longer predict inspections based on downloads from their websites, despite a firm’s claim the practice still works.

Schools Week exposed a loophole in 2023 that offered advance inspection notice to those who monitored downloads from their websites.

Greenhouse School Websites provides a service which tracks activity patterns on hundreds of school websites to help predict when inspectors may visit.

The watchdog tightened its controls following the revelation of the practice, which was widespread and an open secret in schools.

But an Ofsted spokesperson, approached this week, said: “We are confident that the timing of an inspection cannot be predicted based on website traffic.

“Instead, we would encourage schools to concentrate on ensuring their provision is working well for the children they serve, which is the best way to prepare for inspection.”

Critics have described Ofsted’s response as “glib” and said the existence of such services shows the accountability framework remains too high stakes for leaders.

Changes made in 2024

As Schools Week revealed, inspection teams were understood to look at key information documents from a school’s website between two and 14 days before inspections.

By monitoring downloads of the documents, schools were sometimes able to work out if the information was being downloaded by Ofsted.

In early 2024 then-schools minister Damian Hinds said Ofsted – which had been aware of the practice – had “made changes to its processes around how, and when, inspectors access school websites”.

It was understood this meant documents would be downloaded closer to inspections.

Ofsted said at the time the changes were “intended to stop schools from monitoring website traffic”, but declined to release specific details.

Yet on LinkedIn, Greenhouse School Websites said this week it is “continuing to track website activity patterns before Ofsted calls”.

It said that for 11 customers that received “the call” from Ofsted on May 5, notifying them they were to be inspected, their “first website activity alert came an average of 31 days in advance”.

‘Not a crystal ball’

A breakdown showed the 11 schools were first alerted between 13 and 77 days before their inspection.

The company noted the 31-day average is lower than the previous average gap of around 47 days, but said this “still represents a meaningful early warning window”.

“It’s not a crystal ball, and every inspection is different, but these signals can give schools valuable time to check key website content, policies and compliance information before Ofsted makes contact,” the post read.

It quoted an anonymous leader as saying Greenhouse’s Ofsted alerts “were invaluable in helping us prepare” and were “a massive advantage”.

On its website, the company said its Ofsted early warning system “automatically alerts school when we detect patterns of behaviour commonly associated with Ofsted preparation.

“Leveraging the data from over 3,000 school websites, we are confident in our algorithm – a confidence backed up by hundreds of schools confirming the early warning.”

Ofsted stressed it already provided its own information on when schools are likely to be within the inspection “window” depending on a school’s previous grade.

It suggested this meant it was not necessary for schools to spend time or money analysing website traffic to work this out.

However, the window given by Ofsted can be relatively broad.

A video published by Ofsted advises schools rated ‘requires improvement’ under the old framework will likely be inspected within two-and-a-half years of their most recent report.

It said for a school graded RI in a report published in spring 2024, its next graded inspection “is likely to be autumn 2026”.

Alerts ‘surprising’

Former HMI Frank Norris said it was “inevitable” school “websites will be used to check on specific details when programming inspections and when HMI are informed of their allocations”.

But he said the new framework meant there were “tight timescales for inspection preparation for HMI and less emphasis on website compliance”, so it is “surprising to learn that accurate predictions can be made based on quite low website hits”.

Former HMI Adrian Gray said he was also “surprised” by the claims that Ofsted was accessing school data as far as 50 days in advance of inspection.

Education consultant Steve Wren said if schools were making changes based on early website alerts, “it suggests they know something wasn’t right in the first place”.

“Why wait until you get the alert to make the necessary changes?” he added.

Inspection fear

Meanwhile Jonny Uttley, former academy trust CEO and visiting fellow at the Centre for Young Lives, said the existence of the service “is yet more evidence of the intolerable pressure so many school leaders feel as a result of Ofsted’s failure to ratchet down the high stakes and restore confidence in the inspectorate”.

“It is easy to issue glib statements telling leaders to concentrate on running their schools,” he said, responding to Ofsted’s statement.

But he said if there was “more confidence in the accuracy of judgements and less fear of humiliation by numbers”, fewer leaders may feel the need to seek such assurances.

Greenhouse School Websites did not respond to requests for comment.