One in three councils expect more than a fifth of primary school places will be unfilled next year, throwing the falling rolls crisis into the spotlight once more. More town halls are also predicting major shortfalls in their secondaries, with one warning its problems have spawned from “affordability” issues rather than the birth rate. But as government officials prepare to tour more local authorities to work out how to counter the problem, leaders have lobbied for a national ombudsman to take charge of the strategy. Jon Andrews, the head of analysis at the Education Policy Institute (EPI), said the latest figures “illustrate the scale of the challenge caused by a declining pupil population”. “Schools serving more disadvantaged communities are potentially more at risk. The current accountability system can work against them, making them less popular with parents and leaving them vulnerable to competition from other local schools.” Government estimates suggest 16.4 per cent of primary places – 829,000 spaces – will remain empty in 2027-28. Last year, the figure stood at 13.8 per cent. All councils have some surplus places to deal with unexpected influxes. But large surpluses leave schools – which are funded per-pupil while many of their costs are fixed – with huge financial problems. Fifty-five councils believe more than 20 per cent of primary places in their area will remain empty in 2027-28. Vacancies at that level were only seen across 25 authorities in 2024-25, the latest year we have complete figures for. Call for ombudsman Pepe Di’Iasio, the general secretary of the school leaders’ union ASCL, argued for “greater coherence” between the recording of Department for Education, NHS, birth rate, local authority and ministry of housing data. He called for a national ombudsman to oversee this. “There is no dedicated, independent, neutral person responsible for taking a lead role in this and making planned, proactive, sensible decisions,” he said. Georgia Gould “It is left to whichever school happens to fall foul first, have parents vote with their feet or have staff say, ‘We don’t think this school is going to be viable next year.’ It is the worst of all worlds.” The seven councils with the bleakest forecasts are all in London. Lambeth is set to be the worst hit (37.9 per cent). In 2024, the council published plans to close or merge six primaries, including ‘good’-rated St John the Divine, a voluntary-aided school that at the time had 120 pupils out of a possible 210. It was to join with another nearby CofE school to strengthen numbers across both sites. The Southwark Diocesan Board of Education supported the plan. But the admissions watchdog quashed the proposals last year, citing “serious shortcomings” in the council’s consultation. Lambeth was followed by Westminster (35 per cent) and Southwark (32.7 per cent). EPI analysis last year suggested that six primaries have closed in Southwark since 2021. ‘Affordability problem’ Rebecca Corn, its education lead, said: “Six-hundred school-age children are leaving the borough each year. Thirty-six per cent fewer babies are being born here now than in 2010, compared with 16 per cent fewer nationally. “There isn’t an infertility problem here. There’s an affordability problem.” At secondary, 12 councils forecast that more than a fifth of places will be empty in 2027-28, up from nine last year. The East Riding of Yorkshire is the only area among the five worst affected outside London. An authority spokesperson said it had traditionally held surplus places relative to other areas, because of its large rural area of more than 900 square miles. However, falling birth rates “presents a challenge… over the next 10 years”. It said it was managing the size of the school estate flexibly, lowering published admission numbers at some schools, and increasing its use of school buildings for “enhanced and specialist provision”. “Reducing numbers presents resource challenges for our schools, especially given the East Riding is the lowest funded local authority for high needs and one of the lowest funded in core per-pupil funding nationally,” the spokesperson said. “We plan to maintain school places and built capacity of our estate over the coming years, for when pupil numbers start to climb again, though data shows this is unlikely in the medium term.” Andrews urged ministers to protect the overall schools budget and better target funding towards schools serving communities where there was “entrenched disadvantage”. London hit most An EPI study last year found the impact of falling rolls over the next five years would be more pronounced in London, with declines expected in “almost all” boroughs. Twenty-three schools had already closed across the 10 worst-hit authorities. Yolande Burgess, of the London Councils organisation, said last month that inner-city boroughs were bearing the brunt of the impact, while the rolls in eight areas further away from the capital’s centre had increased. These included Barking and Dagenham, which had “had a decade’s worth of significant regeneration”. While declining birth rates were a “key factor” behind the falls, EPI’s analysis showed the “trend also reflects broader shifts in where and how young families are choosing to live”, Andrews said. Pepe DiIasio Understanding those dynamics was crucial for planning and sustaining school places across the country. The government’s education estates strategy, published in February, pledged to create “a local decision-making framework for the use of mainstream school space through demographic change”. It is due to be released in the autumn. To support its development, five pathfinders will pilot how surplus spaces can be used flexibly to join up with Best Start Family Hubs, housing, neighbourhood health services and youth centres. Anne Spinali, of the DfE, revealed during a House of Lords committee this week that officials have been “around the country” to help inform the framework. They plan to visit Dorset, Durham, Cornwall and Westmorland and Furness over the summer to see how they were managing the changing demands “as well as some of the local pressures that are emerging”. Georgia Gould, the schools minister, told the hearing that the crisis was a “long-term and significant issue” for the department. “It’s very much a high priority for us. We understand the pressures that it brings on schools and it’s something we’re working with local authorities to address.”