The government will investigate whether falling rolls in primary schools is harming pupils’ attainment. Ministers are also reviewing “what options for further support may be appropriate to help schools facing falling rolls adapt to changing circumstances”. The House of Lords public services committee has published the Department for Education’s response to its inquiry into the issue of falling rolls. Primary pupil numbers have been falling nationally for several years, while secondary numbers are also due to drop in the coming years as a population bulge makes its way out of the school system. Falling pupil numbers mean schools receive less funding, which has many facing financial uncertainty and concerns about an impact on learning. ‘Risks within the system’ In its report, the committee asked the government to “set out what research it is commissioning to understand the educational impact of falling school rolls on pupils”. The DfE responded that it was “undertaking analysis this year to examine the scale and distribution of falling rolls across state-funded primary schools, including how this varies by school characteristics and geography, and examine current and forecast trends at regional and local authority level. “We will then investigate the association between declining pupil numbers and KS2 attainment, particularly among disadvantaged pupils, at both school and local authority level, and explore the potential mechanisms underlying this relationship.” The results of the analysis “will help the department better understand where falling rolls may create risks within the system and inform how we support local authorities to understand what falling rolls may mean for their areas as they plan strategically. “We will update guidance and consider how to share best practice in response to this next year.” Funding also under review Part of the problem facing schools is that they lose money for every pupil place reduction, but can’t easily make savings at the same time. That’s because if a class goes from 30 to 26 children, they lose per-pupil funding for four children, but still have to pay for the same classroom teacher. The DfE distributes £155 million a year in growth and falling rolls funding to councils. This can be used to support schools facing a temporary fall in numbers, but in its response to the committee, the DfE acknowledged that use of the finding was “not suitable in the face of longer-term demographic change, where the decline in pupil-numbers is more permanent”. The funding can also be used “to meet the revenue costs of removing surplus places, including to create inclusion bases or wraparound childcare provision in mainstream schools”, the DfE said. “We will continue to keep falling rolls funding under review going forward, including considering what options for further support may be appropriate to help schools facing falling rolls adapt to changing circumstances.” However, the government added that “it is the collective and ongoing responsibility of the government and the entire school system to secure best value for money. “This means that we cannot completely insulate schools from pressures resulting from demographic change. “Instead, it is our role to support schools facing pressures to adapt to changing circumstances. We are committed to providing support for schools facing pressures as a result of demographic change.”