The number of secondary school pupils has begun to fall for the first time in a decade, as a population bulge caused by a baby boom in the 2000s makes its way out of the school system. Overall pupil numbers first started falling last year following several years of drops at primary level. The total number of pupils across all schools declined by almost double the amount this year. The DfE initially expected secondary school numbers to peak in 2027 and then gradually fall. But statistics from last July suggested that the secondary school population “is likely to have plateaued between 2024 and 2025” instead. The latest figures show that there were 3,659,508 secondary pupils in state schools in January 2026, down by almost 12,000. The data was published as part of the DfE’s annual schools, pupils and their characteristics dataset. Here are more of the key findings. 1. Primary pupil numbers keep falling The number of primary school pupils has been on a downward trend since 2019, as the demographic shift moved through the school system. The figure fell once again this year to 4,470,363, marking a 2.9 per cent decrease. The number of primary schools also fell by 31. 2. Drop in overall pupil numbers bigger than last year The total number of pupils has dipped below 9 million for the first time since 2021. This figure declined for the first time last year, falling by more than 59,000 after continued increases. But this year that figure fell by 112,000, leaving the total figure at 8,920,227 pupils. At the same time, the total number of schools increased by 20. The numbers of primary and secondary pupils are on track to keep decreasing until the end of the projection period in 2030. 3. Decline in private school pupils continues In the second year after the Labour government introduced VAT on private school fees, their pupil figures have declined once again. The number of pupils in independent schools has decreased to 560,300, down by just over 22,000, or 3.8 per cent. Last year marked the first time the number of private school students fell, with a drop of 11,000 pupils. However, at the same time, the number of private schools has increased by 41. Private school pupils account for 6.3 per cent of the school population. 4. AP numbers fall slightly after big increases Pupil numbers for state-funded alternative provision schools have seen huge rises, from 11,684 pupils in 2021/22 to 16,643 in 2024/25. This has fallen slightly this year to 16,555. But large increases in the number of local authority placements in AP have continued this year, increasing by 21.9 per cent to 72,800. Last year this figure increased by 24 per cent from the previous year. The number of pupils in school-arranged AP rose by 1 per cent this year to 28,300 pupils, after rising by 13 per cent the previous year. Pupils can have more than one AP placement, which means there are more placements than pupils. 5. Secondary class sizes see continued rise Despite the fall in pupils, the average secondary class size has increased marginally by 0.1, to 22.6. Secondary class sizes have been increasing slightly year-on-year. By contrast, primary class sizes have been steadily falling for years, excluding a stable period between 2020-21 and 2023-24. This year, the average primary class size decreased by 0.3 to 26.1.