The number of young people shut out of education and work could surge to 1.25 million within five years unless ministers overhaul “broken” systems meant to support them, a landmark independent review will warn. Former Labour health minister Alan Milburn’s review will say the number of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET) could rise from one in eight to one in six if nothing changes. Milburn will launch his interim diagnostic report tomorrow, with final recommendations expected later this year. He will warn that Britain faces a “generational fault line” unless it confronts “whole system failure” that has left almost one million young people NEET. Milburn is expected to say: “Six in ten have never had a job. Twenty years ago, that figure was closer to four in ten. “Detachment is no longer temporary. For too many young people, it is becoming permanent. We are at risk of a lost generation.” The review will argue that systems built to support young people from childhood to adult life – including schools – are “no longer fit for purpose”. Welfare state to working state It will call for a reset from a welfare state that Milburn describes as “exacerbating inactivity” to a “working state” that “builds capacity”. The report will also warn that new programmes layered on top of a broken system will not be enough. Milburn will stress that young people themselves are not the problem. His review found 84 per cent of NEET young people surveyed want a job or training. But “the first rung of the career ladder has thinned”, leaving many young people trapped between employers demanding experience and a labour market offering fewer opportunities. The report will point to 1.6 million fewer low and medium-skilled jobs in the economy, the halving of vacancies in the hospitality industry over the past four years alone and the “freefall” of Saturday jobs. It will also expose what it calls a “fundamental imbalance” in public spending. In 2024-25, around £25 was spent on benefits for young people for every £1 spent on employment support. Milburn is expected to say: “This is not a failure of young people. It is a failure of a system stuck in the past. “Whether it is education or health or welfare, that system fails to enable their participation in the labour market. “Instead, all too often it ends up putting young people on a path to a life not in jobs but on benefits. This should be the priority for the government. It should be the priority for all of us.” Milburn’s interim diagnostic report will be published in full tomorrow.