Rethink teacher pay rise if inflation rises, say unions

The government must consider hiking next year’s teacher pay rise if inflation rises, unions have said, arguing pay increases should be “significantly above” the RPI measure of inflation.

The School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) in July recommended the government hike teacher pay by 3.5 per cent this year and 3 per cent next year. The multi-year pay recommendation was accepted by the government.

Leaders of the four main teacher and school leader unions – the NEU, ASCL, NAHT and NASUWT – have now written to the education secretary to raise concerns about the government’s response to the STRB.

The NEU has today called off its planned strike ballot, which was due to begin in October, after the government announced last week it believes savings from lower support staff pension contributions make this month’s pay rise affordable for schools.

Real-terms cuts

Nevertheless, NEU general secretary Daniel Kebede, along with ASCL general secretary Pepe Di’Iasio, NAHT general secretary Paul Whiteman and Helen Osgood, director of operations at union Community have collectively written to Lucy Powell raising their concerns.

They welcomed the three-year pay recommendations which, at a combined 9.5 per cent, exceed the 6.5 per cent previously proposed by the government.

“Nevertheless, the 3.5 per cent pay increase is not enough to secure the urgent next step needed in the journey to fully reverse the real terms pay cuts since 2010,” they said.

They added that with inflation on the rise, the 3.5 per cent increase “may well end up representing another real terms cut against RPI inflation”.

“The latest Treasury average of inflation forecasts available at the time of writing shows RPI at 4.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year.”

The union leaders said that to “repair the damage to teacher and school leader pay and provide the pay levels needed to support teacher and school leader supply, the government must invest to secure the major pay correction needed to reverse the real terms cuts to teacher and school leader pay since 2010, with pay increases significantly above RPI inflation.”

The STRB itself noted the value of teachers’ earnings had “reduced since 2010 relative to average earnings across the whole economy, the public sector and other professional occupations”, though “actions taken over recent years have begun to reverse this trend”.

Call for review mechanism

The STRB said that if economic or labour market conditions “diverge significantly” from forecasts, “this should be reflected explicitly in the 2028 remit”.

But the union leaders have called for a review mechanism to be put in place for next year.

“Despite the clear risk of higher inflation and the clear precedents…for establishing review mechanisms as part of multi-year pay proposals, the STRB has refused to recommend such a mechanism for the 2027 pay award,” they said.

They told Powell this approach “should have been rejected” by her predecessor Bridget Phillipson, in her response to the STRB.

“We call on you to put this right and implement in consultation with the unions a fair and robust review mechanism with appropriate triggers.”

Sector wellbeing concerns

The DfE said it has now hit 71 per cent of its target to boost the teacher workforce in secondary schools, special schools and colleges by 6,500.

But the union bosses stressed there is “still a major recruitment and retention crisis” in schools.

They called for changes to boost workforce wellbeing, including for government to establish a future [STRB] remit on enforceable working time protections, and to “fund the staffing required to reduce workload”.

“Retention of teachers and leaders will continue to be a problem while the system depends on routine, excessive, and unpaid work,” they said.

“Addressing excessive workload, enhancing work/life balance, and increasing flexible work opportunities are imperative to tackling education’s recruitment and retention crisis.

“Immediate reforms are essential to retain experienced staff, especially female teachers and leaders, and to foster a more inclusive and supportive teaching profession, ultimately benefiting the quality of student education.”

NASUWT call

In a separate letter to Powell, teachers’ union NASUWT said the pay award fell short of what is needed to resolve the recruitment and retention crisis.

It called on Powell to “agree to urgent discussions on a long-term solution to school funding and real-terms pay cuts for teachers”, and to implement a pay rise review mechanism with “clear triggers for reopening…the 2027-28 pay award”.

General secretary Matt Wrack said: “To fix teacher supply and safeguard the profession for the future, we believe the government must commit to pay increases significantly above inflation to tackle historic pay erosion and make salaries competitive with other graduate professions.

“Of equal importance is action to strengthen contractual protections to bring down excessive workloads.

“Together with action on pay this would help to make teaching a sustainable, attractive long-term career choice and tackle the high drop-out rate from the profession.”

The NASUWT is also calling on the government to “directly reinvest” savings made from the reduction in employer contributions to the Teachers’ Pension Scheme, into teacher pay and core school budgets.

Rebuilding profession ‘key priority’

Responding to NASUWT’s letter, a DfE spokesperson said: “The secretary of state has been clear from day one that rebuilding the attractiveness and status of teaching is a key priority, and that teachers should feel respected, valued and supported throughout their careers.

“High-quality teaching is the single most important in-school factor in improving outcomes for children, which is why this government has backed the profession with a pay award that recognises teachers’ vital role.

“Teacher numbers in targeted sectors are increasing and retention is improving. We are investing an extra £2.3 billion in schools in 2026-27, as well as funding schools to improve maternity pay and offering targeted support to normalise flexible working and manageable workloads so that more teachers stay in our classrooms and thrive.”

Powell also welcomed the NEU’s move to cancel its strike ballot.

“I will always back teachers, support staff, and the whole school workforce so they feel valued, have the support they need and are rewarded and recognised for the amazing work they do.

“Pleased to see the NEU has agreed to stop its ballot for industrial action. There’s a lot to do to get our education system working well for every child, so let’s work together to achieve that.”

Real-terms funding rise – IFS

Meanwhile, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the financial outlook for schools has “improved significantly” thanks to top-ups to the schools budget and pupil numbers falling faster than expected.

Per-pupil funding in England is now expected to grow by nine per cent in real terms between 2025-26 and 2028-29 – more than twice the four per cent growth expected at last summer’s spending review – said the IFS.

“We expect funding per pupil to grow faster than school costs in each year to 2028–29, reversing the squeeze seen in recent years,” said IFS.

Pupil numbers are now expected to fall by 400,000 (five per cent) in that period, compared with a three per cent fall previously expected.

However, rising demand for special education needs and disabilities (SEND) support “will continue to absorb a substantial share” of the funding increase, said IFS.

The IFS also highlighted concerns over habitual allocation of funding outside the spending review process.

Across the last decade, “these top-ups have increased the annual schools budget by around £9 billion (13 per cent of the current budget)”, it said.

“This is not a good way to make funding decisions: repeated changes make it harder for schools to plan their budgets effectively, while allowing government to postpone the difficult trade-offs involved in setting public spending levels.”