Powell criticised for claim one in three ‘can’t’ pass GCSE English and maths

Lucy Powell has been criticised for claiming a third of GCSE pupils “can’t” pass English and maths each year due to the way the exam grading system works.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on results day, the education secretary said: “I think what people perhaps don’t realise is in GCSEs they’re judged by what you would call a comparable outcome, so around a third of students…every year can’t get a grade 4.”

Amanda Spielman, a Conservative peer who was chair and chief regulator at exams watchdog Ofqual and later chief inspector of Ofsted, publicly refuted this, saying she was “horrified” by Powell’s “untrue” assertion.

Spielman said on X that while there are “strong checks to make sure exam boards don’t push up results without strong evidence that standards have actually moved…that is fundamentally different from fixing the percentage who reach or exceed grade 4.

“Either [Powell] didn’t understand her briefing or intentionally misled the public.”

What are comparable outcomes?

Comparable outcomes have long been used by Ofqual to help regulate standards and ensure national results remain broadly consistent year-on-year for cohorts with similar abilities.

This involves using an annual National Reference Test – which samples GCSE pupils earlier in the year – to determine the aptitude of each exam cohort.

But the system does not limit the number of pupils who can pass or get a particular grade. The fact the number of top grades remains relatively stable reflects the fact student performance is typically stable too.

In a “mythbusting” blog from 2017, Ofqual stressed: “While we would not normally expect results to be out of line with predictions, there is no fixed quota of each grade.”

What is Powell’s concern?

Despite there being no quota, each year around a third of GCSE pupils don’t achieve a grade 4 “standard pass” in English and maths.

This cohort of children has been dubbed by the ASCL leaders’ union as the “forgotten third”.

Part of the problem is that those who do not get a grade 4 must continue to study the subjects in the post-16 phase, facing disruptive re-takes of exams.

Figures on Thursday also revealed only one in five pupils go on to pass compulsory GCSE English and maths resits – a statistic Powell described as “shocking”.

“For many young people, they will resit time and time again, and we are branding them a failure,” she told Today.

Ofqual tried to correct Powell before

It is not the first time Powell has been challenged over comparable outcomes.

She made similar claims when a member of the Parliamentary education committee in 2019, during the peak of GCSE reforms.

At a hearing in March that year, she suggested the proportion of state school pupils getting an A* or A in maths was “capped at 20 per cent”.

Then-Ofqual chair Roger Taylor explained “it is not capped”.

Powell responded: “It is comparable outcomes, so therefore you are having the same number each year getting the same grades largely, aren’t you?”

Taylor said: “That is not how comparable outcomes work. Part of the mechanism is to use that information in setting the grading boundaries…but it is also based on human judgment about the quality of the work done. There is not a cap.”

When Powell pressed him further, he stressed the number of each grades awarded each year “can vary” under comparable outcomes.

Clash with former schools minister

At another education committee hearing in April 2019, Powell said that due to comparable outcomes, “40% of children are going to fail their English and maths GCSE…that will happen every year”.

She was challenged by then-school standards minister Nick Gibb, who said “you could get to a position where…more young people are getting grade 4 or above”.

At another committee hearing later in 2019, Powell again described the “comparable outcomes issue” as meaning “40 per cent every year have to fail”.

“It is not like taking a driving test or sitting a music exam or something like that, where there is a point you get to and you pass. You are always being compared with that current cohort.”

Row ‘misses the bigger picture’

ASCL general secretary Pepe Di’Iasio described the “howls of outrage” over Powell’s comments on Thursday as “a little over the top”.

“Lucy Powell should probably have said that students ‘don’t’ get a grade 4 rather than ‘can’t’ but these are pretty technical points that miss the bigger picture which is that we have to do better for these young people.”

He said while it is possible for a higher proportion of pupils to receive a grade 4 in English and maths, “in practice that doesn’t actually happen”.

“The reality is that around one third of pupils don’t achieve that benchmark from one year to the next.”

He called for a “rethink” of the way English and maths are assessed, “so that instead of grading students against one another, we have a qualification which assesses them against a predetermined proficiency standard, in a similar way to a driving test.”

Meanwhile former Ofqual board member Barnaby Lenon said he was “not surprised that Lucy Powell is unclear about the operation of the comparable outcomes process in GCSE grading”.

The National Reference Test helps establish whether each cohort’s performance has increased or declined compared to the previous one.

Lenon explained: “If the performance goes up significantly Ofqual can increase the proportion of candidates getting better grades.”

Exam board chief examiners can also “make the case for pushing up [or down] the grades by comparing the performance of pupils this year with that of previous years.”

“If Ofqual is persuaded they will make that adjustment. This is quite common with subjects with smaller numbers of candidates, where the average performance can certainly change from one year to the next.”

But for large subjects “little change year on year would be expected”, said Jo-Anne Baird, director of the Oxford University Centre for Educational Assessment and former Ofqual board member.

“This is why people make the kind of statements Lucy Powell made.”

Too many young people not passing

The DfE stressed that under the current system, too many young people do not pass English and maths GCSEs.

The government is developing a new level 1 “stepping stone” qualification – equivalent to a GCSE at grade 1 to 3 – in English and maths to improve outcomes for pupils resitting.

A DfE spokesperson said: “It’s brilliant that overall outcomes are up this year, but we know that a third of 16-year-olds do not achieve a grade 4. Resit results are shockingly low, with just 13.6 per cent of 17–19-year-olds achieving a level 2 pass in maths. No one should be OK with that.”

They said this “will genuinely prepare students with the foundational knowledge they need to progress towards the GCSE, as well as opening up vocational routes and pathways from 14, so that every young person leaves education with the skills for success in further study, training and work”.

Ofqual declined to comment.