Almost half of the disadvantage gap ‘locks in’ by age 11 – research

Almost half of the GCSE attainment gap between poorer pupils and their better-off peers is “locked in” by the end of primary school, new research has warned.

By the time they reach the end of key stage 4, disadvantaged pupils are 18 months behind those from less deprived backgrounds.

Research from the Education Policy Institute and Education Endowment Foundation found lower prior attainment at age 11 was the “largest contributor” to the gap, adding 6.8 months,

Pupils’ lower prior attainment at age seven also contributes 1.6 months. The report said this reinforced “that early intervention has a ‘protective’ factor against gap-widening later on”.

Overall, lower prior attainment in the early years and primary contributes 44 per cent of the gap seen at key stage 4.

But pupils’ past performance isn’t the only factor in the gap.

The report found disrupted schooling – notably pupil absence – plays a “progressively larger role as children progress from primary to secondary school”. Absence contributes around a fifth of the attainment gap at key stage 2, rising to a third at key stage 4.

Around 10 per cent of the disadvantage gap at ages 16 to 19 is “linked to the characteristics of students’ peers, with disadvantaged students more likely to study in settings with lower average prior attainment and higher concentrations of disadvantage and SEND”.

Emily Hunt, the EPI’s associate director for social mobility and vulnerable learners, said the research showed early intervention “is crucial in addressing the disadvantage gap.

“But it is not enough on its own. Disadvantaged pupils continue to fall behind at every stage of compulsory education, and are significantly more likely to experience disrupted schooling across both primary and secondary years, which further exacerbates the gap.”

‘Cautious optimism’

But the research did find “cause for cautious optimism”.

“Strong attainment at primary school appears to act as a protective factor against later decline. But the key factors driving the gap: prior attainment, SEND and absence do not emerge in isolation.

“They are affected by wider social conditions: welfare, health, housing and family support. Government investment that looks beyond school gates towards these underlying determinants will be essential if we are serious about closing the gap.”

In its schools white paper, the government set a target to halve the attainment gap. The DfE measures it differently to the EPI, and as of last year, the gap stands at 3.9 points.

EEF chief executive Becky Francis said that “to do that, we need to really understand the factors that drive it.

“What stands out from the findings is how hard it is for young people to catch up once they’ve fallen behind. This has profound implications for our education system as a whole.

“It reinforces just how important investing in high-quality early years education is for disadvantaged children. And it also shows the limits of what schools can achieve on their own. Collaboration with services beyond the school gate is vital.”